The Russian despot Vladimir Putin is not done with his war, an expert has warned.
Vladimir Putin could have his sights set on a NATO country (Image: Getty)
Vladimir Putin appears to be eyeing a new stage in his geopolitical ambitions, with analysts warning his next moves could extend beyond Ukraine. Experts fear the Russian leader may be preparing an escalation, designed to intimidate NATO and weaken Western unity.
One potential target repeatedly mentioned is Narva, a Russian-speaking city on the Estonian border that sits directly on NATO’s frontline. Tim Wilsey, a former diplomat and professor at King’s College London, has shared his theory with The Sun.
He said: “There is a really good chance that Putin will get a favourable deal, favourable to him, and that he will trumpet it domestically as a triumph.”
The former diplomat added: “I think he’s going to need time to recover. The Russian army is in a dreadful state and it’s going to take a while to recover. My bet is three years. I expect Vladimir Putin to have a good year in 2026.
“I don’t think for a moment that Putin’s project is finished.”
According to Wilsey, the Russian leader has already strengthened Moscow’s influence in other regions.
He said: “He pretty much got Georgia under his wing.”
He warned that Moldova could be next, describing it as “very vulnerable.”
“There is a real risk he may start nibbling away at the edges of Ukraine just to see how strong these so-called assurances are actually going to be,” he added.
Another hotspot that could provoke NATO tension is Narva.
Wilsey said: “The one I’ve always thought is very dangerous is Narva, which has an 80% Russian population. Do we really believe that the United States is going to go to war for one town in Estonia? I’m not sure I do anymore.”
He continued: “Influencing of politicians, buying of politicians, sabotage, assassination, use of drones over airports. All of this stuff meant to destabilise us.”
Estonian flag and Russian border crossing in Narva (Image: Getty)
Concerns over Narva are echoed by experts at Chatham House, who note the city’s unique vulnerability to Russian influence and Moscow’s long-standing view of it as unfinished business. Located on Estonia’s eastern edge, Narva faces the Russian city of Ivangorod across the Narva River. The towns were once united under Russian rule before Estonia’s independence turned Narva into a distant outpost of both the EU and NATO.
Demographics play an important role in the risk assessment. Around 97% of Narva’s residents speak Russian, and many maintain close family connections across the border. Shortly after Estonia regained independence, the city and surrounding areas even held an unofficial referendum on autonomy, which Tallinn declared unconstitutional. Many observers believe Moscow quietly encouraged the move.
In 2022, Putin openly described Narva as historically Russian territory that would need to be “taken back,” alarming both Estonia and NATO capitals.
While Estonia has emerged as one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters, life in Narva is more complex. Decades of Soviet rule shaped the city’s culture and language, and those connections have not disappeared. Today, Estonia has actively distanced itself from its Soviet past, removing monuments and warning citizens against travel to Russia. Border crossings that once took minutes can now take up to 10 hours, highlighting Narva’s role as a growing geopolitical fault line.
