EXCLUSIVE: Blocked global trade routes could see food shortages and supermarket price rises in a matter of weeks, a major food distributor has warned.
The Middle Eastern conflict could bite Britons in the pocket, it has been warned (Image: Getty)
UK shoppers have been warned they could see food price rises and gaps on supermarket shelves in a matter of weeks as the conflict in Iran blocks a major global shipping channel. George Phillips, commercial director at Wanis, the UK’s largest world food distributor and wholesaler, said that Tehran’s restriction of the Strait of Hormuz could dig into Britons’ pockets if disruption in the Middle East continues. Tehran moved to shut off the Strait this week, sparking market panic over the risks posed to global oil and gas flows and the prospect of higher crude prices.
The narrow trade route also caters to a quarter of the global raw materials for synthetic fertiliser, which around half of global food production relies on, and acts as a link between food imports from eastern regions to the UK, Mr Phillips said. He warned that re-routed cargo ships could have to extend their journeys by 40% around the Horn of Africa, adding “considerable costs” that could be passed down to consumers.
Iran has moved to block the Strait, which is a major global shipping route (Image: Getty)
“Our stance would be not to pass costs down in the short term, and if it was a couple of percent, we’d definitely avoid doing so in the hopes that it will be a temporary problem, not a long-term one,” he told the Express.
“But if the disruption looks protracted and the costs are higher, it could be a different matter. We’ve had indications from the shipping lines that costs are going to go up, but they haven’t got the specifics yet because it’s too early to say.”
Mr Phillips added that the “gradual price rise” would likely be felt by customers within four to six weeks but emphasised that the “unpredictable” uptick would “not be like energy prices, which went ballistic overnight”.
Among the basic household items that could be impacted by higher shipping costs are bread, pasta, cooking oils, tea, coffee, sugar, rice and noodles, while meat, dairy and vegetables including potatoes could be affected by the shortage of synthetic fertiliser components.
Firms like Wanis, which imports around 60% of what it sells in the UK, could also experience food shortages, leading to “gaps on supermarket shelves”, although these too are unlikely to manifest for at least a few weeks.
The conflict between Iran, Israel and the US is hitting global supply chains (Image: Getty)
“I don’t think shelves will suddenly be empty, but you will see gaps,” Mr Phillips said. “Anything that’s imported from the east will be delayed if the situation in the Middle East doesn’t resolve, which I think is unlikely in the immediate future.
“The trouble is that customer panic could mean people stockpiling these products, which would definitely worsen availability in the shorter term.”
He urged UK shoppers to consider adjusting their shopping habits and look for locally-sourced products instead of food shipped from abroad.
“If I was a customer, I’d take this as an opportunity to look where my food is coming from,” he said. “It might be an odd thing to say as a world food distributor, but I think focusing on British produce could help to mitigate the impact of cost increases.”
Food supply expert Oisin Hanrahan, who founded the manufacturing firm Keychain, also warned that the blocked movement of synthetic fertiliser ingredients could have “a massive knock-on effect for basics like bread and pasta”.
“We import up to 42% of our food, making us vulnerable to global shocks and leaving us reliant on shipping and its associated costs,” he said. “While the UK doesn’t directly import food from Iran, the global supply chain is being severely disrupted by the conflict.”
