Increasing Britain’s ability to rapidly produce vaccines must become a “core national security priority”, a report warns. Analysis from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change found the UK is dangerously exposed in the face of growing biological threats, including bioterrorism and climate-driven diseases. The geopolitical conditions which allowed for rapid access to jabs during the pandemic may not hold in the next crisis, it found.

The report calls for vaccine manufacturing to be treated as critical infrastructure and a core pillar of the nation’s defences. Professor Sir Jonathan Van-Tam, former deputy chief medical officer for England, said Covid had “placed unprecedented strain on health systems in the UK and globally, leading to the loss of over 15 million lives”.

He added: “One of the clearest lessons was the importance of timely access to vaccines. Strengthening vaccine development and manufacturing capability is a statement of national security.

“This is not simply a technical matter — it is essential for ensuring the UK can respond rapidly and effectively when the next health emergency arises.”

The risk of another event on the scale of Covid-19 is estimated at 2.5% to 3.3% per year, according to the report, with a cumulative risk over the next 25 years of between 47% and 57%.

The TBI warned that quick access to vaccines determines how quickly a country can reopen its economy, protect its healthcare system and preserve social stability. Dr Charlotte Refsum, the Institute’s director of health policy, said: “The geopolitical landscape has shifted markedly in recent years. We face a heightened risk of biological threats alongside growing volatility in global trade and supply chains.

“In this context, vaccine manufacturing is not simply a health policy issue — it is a matter of national security and should be treated as a core component of the UK’s defence strategy.” The report calls for the UK to coordinate its existing domestic manufacturing base to ensure production can be scaled up quickly.

It also recommends that the UK should work with allies to boost global surge capacity while spreading risk and reducing reliance on any single supply chain. Dr Refsum described vaccine sovereignty as “a political choice: a recognition that investing in domestic capability and preparedness is a premium worth paying for resilience, speed and strategic autonomy”.

She added: “The UK cannot assume that global supply chains will hold during a crisis or even that routine access to essential vaccines will remain uninterrupted in normal times.

“Without sustained investment now we risk being slower to respond in an emergency, more exposed economically, and more dependent on external actors for critical health infrastructure.

“Building and maintaining vaccine manufacturing capacity, regulatory capability and skilled workforce takes years — and cannot be done at speed once a crisis has already begun.”