Tories slating Reform UK over Nadhim Zahawi defection are missing two big signals it sends
You’d not know it from much of the reaction, but Zahawi’s defection to Reform UK could prove to be a masterstroke.
Nigel Farage welcomes Nadhim Zahawi to Reform UK (Image: PA)
Reform starts the year with a bang! A seat projection conducted at the end of 2025 found Nigel Farage’s party on course for a big majority. A string of polls in early 2026 also shows Reform’s support rising, including one by pollster YouGov, which had Reform up one point on 26% after recording 25% in late December. Now however, another poll by YouGov (which generally scores Reform lower than the likes of Opinium, More in Common and Find Out Now) has Reform down a touch on 24%.
Apparently – according to the commentariat anyway – this signals ‘Peak Farage’ and the return of the Tories, even with the defection of Conservative big beast and former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi this week. More likely however is that YouGov is essentially recording a little bobbing up and down, but with the relative positions of the major parties unchanged.
Zahawi’s defection surely sends two big signals to those Tories which Reform still needs to win over. One, that Farage’s party is not a one-man band so easily dismissed. And two, that Reform UK is not a party of alleged crazies and loons.
A former Chancellor offers economic clout and knowledge of government, exactly what Reform needs, while another non-white face adds credibility to the claim Reform can well appeal to a diverse range of patriots.
Nevertheless, there are risks in taking in Tory defectors, especially when Reform wants to win over Labour voters, and put clear blue water between itself and the discredited Conservatives.
Moreover, unlike Danny Kruger, most Tory defectors so far have not been former MPs. That’s not really helping Reform’s parliamentary position. And again, it’s a hard sell to be a revolutionary force when you are attracting so many folks from the ancien régime.
Still, every person who leaves the Conservatives for Reform signals the future is with the latter and not the former. Post-Budget ‘Badenoch bounce’ or not, that’s hardly a great look for the Tories.
Breathless commentators will pounce on the slightest poll drop to suggest Peak Farage. I’m not so sure. True, immigration is not the only issue in town, and mass Tory defections have their pros and cons.
But voters aren’t that forgetful about the years of Conservative deceit. Remember, this is a party which botched Brexit, and which – having campaigned to slash immigration – did the complete opposite.
This is a party which could have left the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – with all its attendant problems hamstringing the country – but never did.
The Tories – laughably seen as the party of law and order – sat back as our towns and cities became more dangerous. Meanwhile, the party once seen as on the side of small business, never fixed the dreaded IR35 rules impacting contractors and freelancers.
Net debt rose, and productivity worsened, between 2010 and 2024. Yes, the Tories can point to the financial crisis legacy and Covid. But that doesn’t explain everything. What about chronically low investment during the years of failed Tory rule?
Meanwhile any Labour back-peddling on immigration or ID cards is more likely viewed as spineless rather than strong. Who wants another five years of Sir Keir and his continuity government?
Roll on May.
