Labour is celebrating a fall in the number of migrants in hotels and an increase in the number of small boat arrivals being deported. But new Home Office figures published on Thursday morning tell a different story entirely.

Yes, it’s important to acknowledge that the number of asylum seekers in hotels has fallen, from 36,273 in September 2025 to 30,657. And the number of Channel migrants who have been deported has increased, from 2,324 to 2,550.

No, I haven’t missed a ‘0’ off the end. Crudely speaking, around 6% of small boat migrants were deported last year.

Dispersal accommodation

But, dive a bit deeper into the data and you see the numerous crises facing the Home Office. More asylum seekers are now being housed in residential areas across the country.

Nearly every council in the country is accommodating asylum seekers. Local authorities that had managed to protect their housing stocks have now been worn down, as Keir Starmer and Shabana Mahmood try to close migrant hotels.

In total, 68,538 asylum seekers are now living in dispersal accommodation, up from 66,232 in the year to September and an increase of around 7,000 since the General Election.

Visa switchers

And the number of migrants seeking refuge after arriving on a visa is still staggeringly high.

In fact, the number attempting to stay after travelling on a work visa hit a record high of 13,557. That’s up 2,519 in 12 months. Another 12,578 sought protection after obtaining a study visa.

The route to claiming asylum varies wildly by nationality. For example, 7,783 Eritreans made a claim after crossing the Channel. By contrast, just 559 Eritreans had obtained a visa before seeking sanctuary.

Only 118 Pakistanis crossed the Channel on a small boat last year – while 9,471 travelled to the UK legally on a visa, before claiming asylum.

A similar picture emerges if you examine Afghanistan and Bangladesh. A total of 4,873 Afghans crossed the Channel and claimed asylum, compared to just six Bangladeshis.

But 5,305 Bangladeshis had a visa. Just 910 Afghans used the same tactic.

There are still a litany of loopholes being exploited. And fires are breaking out in multiple places at once, each requiring the Home Office’s rapid attention.

Record numbers of African arrivals

The number of asylum claims made by citizens from a host of African countries hit record highs last year.

Claims from Eritreans, Sudanese migrants, Somalians and Ethiopians all surged. In 2010, just 772 Eritreans claimed asylum. This exploded to 8,948 last year. A similar picture emerges with people from Sudan – 643 to 5,869.

This is quite a critical piece of intelligence, because smuggling gangs are known to operate within their own national groups.

While Kurdish gangs control the routes and boats across the Channel, the sharp increases in the four nationalities above would indicate gangs from these countries are now well-established and successfully getting migrants into the UK.

As Zia Yusuf, Reform’s home affairs spokesman told the Daily Express, more people are learning “how easy it is to penetrate Britain’s borders illegally”.

Appeals backlog

But, Labour’s biggest problem?

The spiralling appeals backlog.

The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford noted: “Applications have shifted from one backlog into another: Ministry of Justice data indicate that the total number of people awaiting for an appeal against an asylum decision doubled to just below 70,000 in the year ending September 2025.

“The growing appeals backlog results from a larger number of initial decisions as well as a higher share being refused.”

Lack of deportations

If the Home Office is rejecting people, but they still can’t deport those who have no right to be here, how can it regain control of the borders?

This crisis is illustrated by the shockingly low number of small boat returns – 2,550 last year.

It’s a marginal improvement on 2024, but it demonstrates a system in crisis.

Tens of thousands arrive, with tens of thousands already receiving taxpayer-funded accommodation, with tens of thousands more appealing Home Office decisions.

And only a tiny fraction are actually removed. What happened to Labour’s return hubs?

So now is not the time to celebrate progress, because the alarm bells are still ringing and the house is still very much on fire.

Only rapidly tackling the appeals backlog and dramatically increasing the number of removals of small boat migrants will restore confidence in the immigration system.