As war rages in Iran, and the world wonders if US president Donald Trump has an exit strategy. Energy shortages could send crude oil prices to $150 or even $200 a barrel, analysts warn. That would hammer motorists at the pumps, push up gas and electricity bills, and drive up food prices. Just two weeks ago, the Bank of England expected consumer price inflation to fall to 2% by spring. Now, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts it could hit 3% this year, and some fear it may climb as high as 5%. Just when we thought the cost-of-living crisis was over, it’s back. With a vengeance.

Volatile markets add insult to injury for retirees. Falling share prices hit pensions, Stocks and Shares ISAs and drawdown pots, leaving millions squeezed between rising prices and shrinking incomes. But in all of this, there is one positive. The state pension isn’t generous, but at least it’s steady. And from April, it will rise by 4.8% thanks to the triple lock.

The mechanism, launched in April 2011, increases the state pension each year by inflation, average earnings or 2.5%, whichever is highest. This year, the increase is based on earnings, measured between July and September last year.

While inflation may edge up in April, the triple lock hike should be higher. Given today’s uncertainty, that’s something worth having. Once again, the triple lock has shown its mettle. It’s done a brilliant job of reducing pensioner poverty. Many continue to struggle on a relatively low state pension, but without the triple lock, they’d be even worse off.

It also stops politicians from backsliding and finding sneaky excuses to trim the state pension. Yet the Treasury hates it. Critics argue it’s ultimately unsustainable. Even Reform UK’s Nigel Farage says “its future is up for debate”.

MPs across every party would love to scale it back. They’d have done it already, if not for one thing. Pensioners would be in uproar, and they vote. Anyone who messes with the triple lock risks a kicking at the ballot box.

It seems safe for this Parliament. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s promises aren’t exactly carved in stone, but she has indicated no immediate changes. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess. War in Iran could now threaten its future.

Reeves went into this conflict with almost no fiscal headroom. If the war drags on, her plans could be completely blown away. She’s already facing huge pressure to support households with energy and fuel bills. At the same time, if inflation rockets, the state pension may jump again in April 2027, under the triple lock.

I’d hoped that a period of steady earnings growth and falling inflation might finally silence triple lock critics, by preventing bumper increases as we’ve seen in recent years. But another big hike next April could fire them up again, bringing the policy into question.

The triple lock is loved by pensioners, and rightly so. Politicians? Not so much. And the more public finances are squeezed, the more they’ll look for excuses to bin it. One day, that could spell trouble for every pensioner counting on it.