New research reveals the truth behind the effectiveness of Labour’s migrant policy, sparking debate over its impact on recent waves of migration into the UK
Migrant arrivals are heavily influenced by weather and sea conditions (Image: Getty)
Labour’s controversial one in, one out migrant policy has been less successful in deterring Channel crossings compared to the Conservatives‘ scrapped Rwanda scheme, according to sophisticated new research.
A peer-reviewed study using advanced modelling techniques suggests that the one in, one out scheme, which involves returning Channel migrants to France, has reduced arrivals by just 9 per cent since its announcement on July 10 up to October 31.
In contrast, the now-abandoned Rwanda scheme appears to have had a more significant impact, with arrivals rising by 24 per cent more than projected after Labour scrapped the policy following their election victory last summer.
Modelling predicts migrant crossings with high accuracy
The sophisticated modelling, published in a peer-reviewed journal, is designed to predict the daily number of small boat migrant arrivals based on a range of factors including weather, sea conditions, the scale of illegal immigration across Europe, asylum refusals, cross-Channel deaths, returns agreements and other schemes.
The model, created by data scientist Dr Richard Wood, has previously proved highly accurate in forecasting migrant crossings. It has predicted 45,651 crossings by the end of this year, closely tracking 2022’s trajectory with just over 39,000 migrants having reached the UK so far.
Deterrents ‘have impact’
While migrant arrivals are heavily influenced by weather and sea conditions, Dr Wood’s model suggests that government policies and agreements do have an effect.
“Deterrents appear to have some impact, noting migrant arrivals 41 per cent higher since repealing the Dublin III regulation and 36 per cent lower since introducing the [2022] Albania returns agreement – both findings statistically significant,” he said.
Analysing the impact of the one in, one out scheme, which has so far returned more than 100 Channel migrants to France, Dr Wood’s model suggested that it could have reduced migrant arrivals by 8.8 per cent. However, he cautioned that this decline was within the “expected variation” and may not have been directly caused by the scheme.
Home Office ‘does not recognise’ analysis
The Home Office said it did “not recognise” the analysis but confirmed that an evaluation of the one in, one out scheme was underway.
“Our pilot scheme, which continues to be scaled up, has already resulted in more than 100 illegal migrants with no right to remain in the United Kingdom being returned to France. In contrast, the Rwanda scheme cost taxpayers £700m and delivered only four voluntary returns,” said a spokesman.
Shadow home secretary slams Labour’s ‘catastrophic mistake’
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, criticised Labour’s decision to cancel the Rwanda removals deterrent, saying: “We have some simple facts. The Labour Government made a catastrophic mistake by cancelling the Rwanda removals deterrent just before it stared and numbers crossing have surged since the election.”
He added: “Since the government’s so-called ‘one in, one out’ deal was announced, about 16,000 illegal immigrants have come in and only about 100 sent out – so illegal channel immigrants have a 99.5 per cent chance of staying in the UK.”
As the debate over the effectiveness of migrant deterrent schemes rages on, the modelling suggests that predicting arrivals could be useful for both operational and strategic decision-making in tackling the ongoing Channel crossings crisis.
