Survey suggests former immigration minister could take more seats from Labour than leadership rival Kemi Badenoch

Sir Keir Starmer would lose his Commons majority if there was a snap election with Robert Jenrick as the leader of the Tories, according to a poll.

Mr Jenrick, the former immigration minister, would win 57 extra seats if he was leader, compared with the 30 that would be gained if Kemi Badenoch, his rival for the top job, was in charge, according to the poll of nearly 6,300 people by Electoral Calculus.

That would mean there would be a hung Parliament if Mr Jenrick was Tory leader against a Labour majority of 14 seats if Mrs Badenoch, the shadow housing secretary, was leader.

It is the first poll to assess the respective electoral chances of the remaining two candidates in the leadership race. Tory members started voting on Wednesday to elect the winner, who will be declared on Nov 2.

Surveys of Tory members suggest that Mrs Badenoch has the edge over Mr Jenrick, although the gap has narrowed.

A YouGov poll of members at the beginning of October showed her ahead by 52 per cent to Mr Jenrick’s 48 per cent, compared with 59 per cent versus 41 per cent six weeks earlier.

Prof Sir John Curtice, a polling expert, claimed earlier this week that neither Mr Jenrick nor Mrs Badenoch would be able to win back voters and lead the Tories to victory at the next election.

“These figures suggest the Conservatives would do better at an immediate general election under Jenrick compared with Badenoch. In both cases, Labour would lose a large number of seats and the Conservatives, and Reform UK, would gain seats,” said the Electoral Calculus analysis.

Under Mr Jenrick, the Conservatives would increase their seats from 121 to 178, with Labour falling from 412 to 311, the Liberal Democrats dropping from 72 to 58 and Reform rising from five to 24. That would leave Labour 14 short of a majority.

Under Mrs Badenoch, the Conservatives would increase their number of seats from 121 to 151, while Labour would fall from 412 to 332, the Lib Dems would dip from 72 to 63 and Reform would rise from five to 25. That would see Labour in government with a 14-seat majority.

Mr Jenrick would shave seven percentage points off Labour’s 35 per cent share of the vote at the election, with the Tories on 23 per cent. Mrs Badenoch would take six points off Labour, with the Tories on 23 per cent.

Electoral Calculus carried out a similar analysis during the 2019 Conservative leadership campaign, which asked how people would vote if any of the candidates were chosen as leader.

“That gave the result that the Conservatives would win a big majority if Boris Johnson were chosen. This finding was dismissed by many at the time, although it turned out to be broadly correct as the Conservatives won a big majority under Johnson at the subsequent election six months later,” said the report.

A Jenrick campaign source said: “All the polling shows that Rob is more popular than Kemi with the public – whether they are Labour, Lib Dem or Reform voters. This is a contest to pick the next prospective prime minister, not just an opposition figure to shout at Starmer.

“Everyone has had enough of excuses and drama – we just need to deliver.”