The survey listed eight senior Labour politicians alongside Starmer, including five cabinet ministers: Wes Streeting (health secretary), Shabana Mahmood (home secretary), Bridget Phillipson (education secretary), Ed Miliband (energy secretary), and Darren Jones (chief secretary to the prime minister). Angela Rayner (former deputy prime minister), Andy Burnham (mayor of Greater Manchester), and Lucy Powell (deputy leader of the Labour Party) were also included, states the report.

Respondents offered £500 cash draw for participation

Participants in the online questionnaire were offered entry into a £500 cash draw for their responses. They were asked to place each politician on a “left-right scale” ranging from “very left wing” to “very right wing.” The survey concluded with a series of hypothetical head-to-head leadership choices.

Hypothetical leadership matchups fuel speculation

The Times witnessed various hypothetical leadership matchups on several digital devices, including Phillipson vs. Burnham, Phillipson vs. Streeting, Burnham vs. Starmer, Jones vs. Starmer, Rayner vs. Streeting, and Rayner vs. Mahmood. Another question provided only two leadership candidates and asked members to rank who was more likely to win a general election.

While internal polling of members’ views on senior Labour figures is not unusual, Labour Together’s decision to ask whether Starmer is more or less able to win a general election compared to others in the party is likely to fuel speculation that Labour is preparing to replace him. The think tank plans to convey the survey results to the party leadership and conduct further polling and focus-group research on members’ views in the coming months.

Downing Street previously briefed on Starmer’s resolve to fight challenges

Last month, Downing Street briefed multiple media outlets that Starmer would fight any challenge to his leadership, a move that led to days of hostility between Wes Streeting, who was accused of plotting a coup against the prime minister, and No 10.

Under the leadership of Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, Labour Together spent significant funds on internal polling that helped Starmer win the 2020 leadership election to replace Jeremy Corbyn. The think tank’s close links to Downing Street have earned it the title of the only “Starmerite” think tank.

McSweeney’s role in defeating the left in 2020

During Corbyn’s leadership, McSweeney used Labour Together and its donations to fund research that he eventually used to defeat the left in the 2020 leadership contest. Since then, the think tank has focused on polling and policy that broadly supports the government’s agenda. Until 2024, it was run by Josh Simons, who is now a Labour MP and Cabinet Office minister.

There is no indication that McSweeney or any of the potential candidates named were aware of the survey, which closes on December 15. Labour Together has not publicly mentioned its existence, states The Times.

The Express has contacted Labour Together via email inviting a spokesperson for the organisation to comment.

Incentives offered for survey participation

In an email to party activists this weekend, a senior staff member at the think tank mentioned “stellar pick-up so far” and offered £100 to any local party with more than ten members responding, along with entry into a £1,000 prize draw.

Respondents were asked about their preferences for “Labour politicians who have principles but are prepared to compromise” versus those who “stand by their principles no matter what.” The survey also covered the government’s performance on various policy areas, reasons for joining the Labour Party, past voting history, level of education, and postcode.

Valuable insights for potential leadership contenders

The comprehensive survey is expected to provide Labour Together with valuable insights into the views and composition of the membership, which is notoriously difficult to poll conventionally. This information would be invaluable to any politician planning to stand to replace Starmer, although there is no suggestion that Labour Together solicited the survey on behalf of any specific candidate.

None of the likely candidates named in the questionnaire have explicitly confirmed their leadership ambitions, though they are all discussed as contenders in Labour circles. Only Ed Miliband has ruled himself out, stating last month that his first stint as leader was a “very successful inoculation” against wanting to run again.

Intensifying speculation over succession dividing lines

Discussion about the likely dividing lines in the next leadership contest has intensified in recent days. In an interview with The Observer, Starmer confirmed his desire to see Rayner, considered the “kingmaker” for the succession, back in the cabinet. The Mail on Sunday reported that Starmer had offered Rayner the job of education secretary to dissuade her from challenging his leadership, a claim denied by No 10.

Meanwhile, it has emerged that the Unite trade union is considering calling an emergency conference to vote on whether it should remain affiliated with the Labour Party. Severing ties would mean the union could no longer nominate a candidate in any leadership election, and its members would lose their right to vote alongside Labour members. This development comes despite Unite being the party’s biggest donor in the third quarter of this year, despite its hostility towards Starmer.