EXCLUSIVE: The warning from a top Russian general has triggered urgent discussions in the UK and US about the risk of a deniable strike aimed at fracturing NATO.
Moscow is preparing a “greyzone” attack on Poland before Christmas, a senior Russian military official has revealed.
The warning, sent through an Eastern European ally during London’s DSEI arms fair last week, has triggered urgent discussions in the UK and US about the risk of a deniable strike aimed at fracturing NATO.
It comes as Russia continues a new tactic to pressure NATO by sniping at its borders to test the alliance’s resolve.
In the latest case, three MiG-31 fighter jets capable of carrying hypersonic missiles breached Estonian airspace.
The Russian jets were intercepted after circling for 12 minutes over the Gulf of Finland.
Prime Minister Kristen Michal described the incident as “unprecedentedly brazen”, while Donald Trump warned it could cause “big trouble”.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper added: “The UK stands with our Estonian allies, following yet another reckless incursion into NATO airspace by Russia. We must continue to increase pressure on Putin, including driving forward the new sanctions announced by the UK and the EU.”
Russia could be looking to stage a (Image: AFP via Getty Images)
Putin could follow the play book he first rolled out invading Ukraine back in 2014 (Image: Getty)
But while NATO’s northern flank has been repeatedly tested, the defector general warned that Poland could face something far more direct.
According to intelligence sources, the information was provided by a Russian one-star officer, believed to be an army Major General, who has since left Russia.
He claims the Kremlin is planning a non-nuclear strike on Polish territory – a limited but deliberate act designed to test NATO’s response and trigger political destabilisation in Europe.
The intelligence has been shared with the US and is now under assessment by senior transatlantic officials.
One UK source noted that any NATO response would likely remain conventional, in line with Cold War deterrence models such as the MoD’s Wintex exercises.
Last week Russia dispatched 19 drones into Polish airspace – described by British officials as the most serious violation of NATO territory to date.
Romania was also targeted when a drone crossed 10km into its territory and remained for nearly 50 minutes.
In response, Britain has announced that RAF Typhoon jets will begin air defence missions over Poland as part of NATO’s Eastern Sentry operation.
Apartment block damaged by Russian attack in Kyiv (Image: Getty)
In response, Britain has announced that RAF Typhoon jets will begin air defence missions over Poland as part of NATO’s Eastern Sentry operation.
Operating from RAF Coningsby and supported by Voyager tankers from Brize Norton, the jets will join French, German, Danish and Swedish forces patrolling the eastern flank.
“This reflects a new era of threat that demands a new era of defence,” warned a UK Government spokesman.
The deployment followed an emergency session of the North Atlantic Council, during which Poland triggered Article 4 of the NATO treaty.
Allies expressed full solidarity.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned the country is now closer to military conflict “than at any time since the Second World War.”
UK Ambassador to the OSCE Neil Holland told the forum: “These are isolated incidents. Either Russia has deployed systems it cannot control, or it is provoking us deliberately.”
Meanwhile, new NATO member Finland has become a target of Moscow’s information warfare.
The Institute for the Study of War last week warned that the Kremlin had launched a “coordinated” campaign echoing the rhetoric used before its 2022 invasion.
NATO leaders have been dealing with both Zelensky and Trump during the war (Image: Getty)
Sergei Lavrov claimed Finland’s “neutral veneer” had peeled away, while Security Council member Sergei Ivanov alleged the country’s southeast was facing “depopulation” without Russian tourism.
Western officials fear the disinformation campaign is intended to soften the ground for further provocations along the Gulf of Finland.
While Poland has received additional NATO support, analysts warn the alliance remains vulnerable. “You’re using multi-million-pound fighter jets to shoot down drones worth a few thousand,” said Mykola Kuzmin of the Henry Jackson Society.
“That’s not sustainable, and Russia knows it.”
Whitehall officials say the defector general’s warning has added urgency to NATO planning, especially as winter approaches and political cohesion in Europe begins to fray.
“There’s no suggestion of a full-scale invasion,” one said.
“But a calibrated strike – something deniable, something confusing – is exactly how Russia has operated in the past.”
According to Kuzmin, the drone attacks are part of a deliberate strategy to apply pressure while preserving deniability.
Ukrainians Clear Up After Russian Missile And Drone Strikes In Dnipro (Image: Getty)
“Russia launched at least 23 drones into Poland That’s not just poor interception, it’s economic warfare.
“It costs Russia under £100,000 to build a drone. It costs NATO millions to shoot one down.”
He argued the pattern reflects a classic greyzone tactic: actions short of war, designed to provoke confusion, hesitation and fear.
“They’re probing NATO,” he said. “If they can strike Poland and NATO flinches – even slightly – it undermines the whole alliance.”
Strategically, Russia’s interest in the Suwałki Gap remains central.
The narrow corridor links Poland to the Baltic states and cuts off Kaliningrad, Russia’s militarised exclave. “In Cold War terms, Kaliningrad is their Cuba,” Kuzmin said.
“It’s a forward base packed with jamming systems, listening posts and strategic leverage. A probe there sends a message to every capital in Europe.”
