Reform UK don’t need London to win Britain, but our capital needs the insurgent party if we want to make it less dangerous.
London needs Reform (Image: Getty )
As May’s local elections loom, Reform is looking to woo the people of London. Even though the city’s mayoral race is not for another two years, Laila Cunningham has been revealed as the party’s candidate and spokesperson for the capital. A former prosecutor, Cunningham is making early pledges on automating the Tube and scrapping the costly ULEZ emissions scheme. But her biggest pitch is on crime.
Rudy Guiliani-style, Cunningham is set to paint Labour Mayor Sir Sadiq Khan as an inept leader overseeing a lawless capital. Writing this from Singapore, I can testify that London – while safer than New York and Paris – is infinitely (and unnecessarily) more dangerous than here, Seoul, Taipei or Tokyo.
Can Reform do it? Well, it’s a tall order. London is a Labour city. That doesn’t mean Cunningham can’t win of course. Boris Johnson won elections as London Mayor even as his Tory party lost to Labour at parliamentary level in the capital.
Polling suggests Reform could win 8 London constituencies at the next election, and polls well in Outer London, especially areas like Havering in the East.
Still, London elects 75 MPs. Winning 8 from nothing is a success but, even with these losses and predicted Labour losses to the Conservatives, Sir Keir Starmer – a London MP himself – can still count on the capital.
But again, as Boris Johnson showed, things can work differently ar local government level. While in 2024 Khan took over 40% of votes versus barely one-third for the Tory candidate, that was at a time when the Conservatives were nose-diving nationally.
Back then Reform was hardly on the map – countrywide, let alone in London. Meanwhile Khan may well decide not to stand in 2028. Crime is also a growing issue, much more than before. There is then much to play for.
Reform doesn’t need London to win Britain. But London needs Reform to stop being a lawless hellhole. Cunningham’s pitch is clear and Reform is clearly eyeing big gains in the capital this May.
Will the ‘doughnut strategy’ of winning Outer London work? Can Reform devour the Tory vote? Well, who would have thought one year ago that Nigel Farage was on course for Number 10? Cunningham v Khan isn’t just about becoming Mayor of London but a battle for the soul of a great but very wounded city.
