Local election results might be dismissed by the losers as unimportant because they only reflect the views of voters in 23 councils and six mayoral posts in England – but don’t be fooled. This is a transformational moment in British election history. We are experiencing a once-in-a-century realignment of our politics. For so long, we had a two-way race between the Conservatives and Labour, but now we have a four-way race with the emergence of Reform and the resurgence of the Liberal Democrats – and we don’t yet know what the outcome will be.

Will the UK become like many parts of Europe where coalitions are built between parties as a pre-condition of forming a government? Or will there be a permanent alliance between the parties of the Right to regain power? I have been a Conservative Party donor and Party supporter for many years, but it is clear the Tories are now paying the price for more than a decade of mismanagement in office.

The Labour government meanwhile is like a start-up business; they are learning on the job and making mistakes all the time. They only won 34% of the popular vote in the 2024 general election, but they have a huge parliamentary majority, and the electoral arithmetic suggests they will win again, even if their majority is greatly reduced.

This is an existential moment for the Conservatives: it requires imaginative thinking and bold decision making. To survive, I believe they must make a pact with Reform. Voters are crying out for someone with charisma to put the Great into Britain again.

If a deal doesn’t happen out of choice, as it can now, then it will happen out of necessity. I have spent much of my business career negotiating mergers and acquisition (M&A) deals and one thing I learnt is that you can never negotiate a good deal when it is out of necessity. It’s far better to do it when you still have the choice, and I believe there is a one-year window when this can happen.

However, as with any business deal, it can only work when the parties are talking to each other, not across each other. Although there is much about Kemi Badenoch that I admire, she does not have the skills or experience to deliver such a pact. It will need to be someone who understands how Reform and Nigel Farage work. It will also require a recognition, however unpalatable for some Conservatives, that Reform has the momentum, even though it is a new party.

In the language of M&A, it must be a merger of equals and there are plenty of examples of the newer business taking the lead in a merger with a long-established corporate titan. An alliance might seem far-fetched, but the truth is the parties are united on most issues. Although I have affiliations to the Conservative Party, I have been involved in discussions about the establishment of a new Reform think tank because I believe it can ultimately help to bring the two parties together to iron out policy differences.

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“Why don’t the Remainlings mention how the LibLabContrick totally messed up Brexit by failing to implement it fully.” 12

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JOIN THE DEBATE

Nigel Farage is the one leader who has the popular appeal to overturn the biggest parliamentary majority in 25 years. He has the ideas, the electoral know-how and the ability to craft a populist narrative. But there must be room for One Nation Tories in a new political movement. If not, the left of the Conservative Party might try to fight on as a separate entity, even if the truth is it will be finished.

The Liberal Democrats would try to woo One Nation Tories to create an alliance, strengthening their own position. Ironically, it would have echoes of what happened in 1988 when the Liberal Party merged with the Social Democrats to form the Liberal Democrats, except this time it would be splitting the Right’s vote.

Some Conservative supporters may find it hard to accept this new political reality, but we only have to look across the Atlantic, or at continental Europe, to know that electoral maps are being reshaped in ways we once thought unimaginable.

Nigel Farage is a divisive figure, but the politician I see now is very different from the one who laid the foundations for Boris Johnson’s Brexit victory. He has become more of a statesman. He understands what the people of Britain want and deserve.

Some people might feel this is an over-reaction to local election results, which were always going to be challenging for the Conservatives. They were defending seats they won at the high point of Boris Johnson’s premiership, so losing a high percentage was priced in. But today’s political landscape is changing before our eyes. And if the Conservatives can’t see that I fear for their future.

• Mohamed Amersi is a British businessman and founder and chairman of the Amersi Foundation