Polling expert Sir John Curtice has shared his thoughts on the real reason why Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour party might be in more trouble than they think. Yesterday’s local elections marked a big test for the Labour government– one they appeared to fail. All 23 councils have now been announced, with Reform UK winning 10, the Liberal Democrats three, and another 10 now under no overall control.

Reform UK won 677 councillors, while Labour lost 186, ending up with less than 100 in the areas where votes were being cast. The Tories also suffered heavy losses, wihle Labour also lost a crucial parliamentary by-election to Reform UK in Runcorn and Helsby. Nigel Farage‘s party even won two mayoral races: Andrea Jenkyns in Greater Lincolnshire and Former Olympian Luke Campbell in Hull & East Yorkshire. The local elections were also cancelled by Angela Rayner in some parts of the country – a move that has been heavily criticised.

Commenting on the results, political scientist Sir John Curtice delivered a sobering analysis on BBC Breakfast this morning, warning both Labour and Conservative parties that their traditional dominance is under real threat. With Reform clearly coming first, he described the results as unprecedented, highlighting that never before had a party outside the traditional two managed to challenge them as strongly in local elections as Reform had.

Speaking to Naga Munchetty on BBC Breakfast on Saturday, May 3, Curtice said: “I think this probably is an important wake up call to them.

“There’s been a tendency for both Conservative and Labour politicians to presume that politics as has been done in the past – as essentially a battle between the two of them – and that they can largely ignore the various attempts to challenge their joint positions could largely be ignored.

“This is now a clear warning to them that they can no longer do that.”

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He further stressed the real issue behind the major parties losing seats is spending most of their time arguing about their records and ignoring Reform and Liberal Democrats.

He added: “The truth is, the last general election, the Conservatives lost grounds very very heavily to Reform and that’s just got worse now.

“But Labour also only got 35% of the vote in the last general election, they are already skating on relatively thin ice. The public frankly have not been impressed by the way in which Keir Starmer and his colleagues have run the country.

Curtice argued that the public does not believe they have seen the change promised by Labour, and as a result, many voters have turned to Reform to express their dissatisfaction.

He urged both parties to start engaging seriously with these emerging parties and to abandon the notion that British politics is an exclusive contest between just the two of them.