Perhaps I’m wrong. Perhaps the ayatollahs will buckle under US president Donald Trump’s onslaught. That would be a fantastic result for the Iranian people, for Trump, the West and the UK economy. It would suit Rachel Reeves nicely too. Right now the outcome hangs in the balance. The regime is digging in and might even be luring the US into a military trap. The longer the fighting drags on, the more it’s going to cost us.

Yesterday the oil price slipped below $100 a barrel after Trump declared the war is “nearly over”. I’m not convinced. This war could unleash chaos, and much of it will revolve around oil. That’s bad news for the UK economy and even worse news for Reeves. She was banking on inflation dropping to 2% by the spring. That would have let the Bank of England to cut interest rates and relieve pressure on households and businesses. It won’t happen if crude shoots past $150 or even $200, as some analysts predict.

That could send inflation rocketing towards 5%, and hammer a UK economy that’s already dead on its feet. It could tip Britain into recession, push unemployment higher, drive up borrowing costs and blow a hole clean through Reeves’s fiscal plans.

As a fair-minded commentator, I’ll note that Reeves didn’t start this war. She didn’t order strikes on Iran or provoke the retaliation that threatens the crucial Strait of Hormuz oil supply route. None of that is down to her. But she can’t use it as an excuse either.

And she will. There’s no doubt about that. If the war drags on, Britons will feel the pain. Reeves will have to make some tough decisions. and she’ll pin every single one on events in the Middle East. But that won’t wash.

Reeves crippled our economy long before the US bombers flew. Her tax raids, especially on business, have sapped confidence and killed growth.

The economy expanded just 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025 and at the same deathly pace in the final three months of the year. Was that down to war in Iran? No, because there wasn’t one.

She’s already burned through her fiscal headroom twice. That wasn’t down to Trump or the ayatollahs either. It followed two chaotic Budgets and her decision to carpet bomb Brits with £70billion of tax hikes, when she’d only signalled two precision strikes totalling £8.5billion.

Her bungling has left Britain on a knife edge. We had no financial cushion when the next crisis arrived. And now it has. Reeves has another problem.

Every time the chancellor stands up in Parliament she blames everything that’s gone wrong on the Conservatives. Fair enough. Tory chancellors also raised taxes and pushed debt higher. But Reeves conveniently skips one crucial fact. The pandemic.

Covid support programmes such as furlough and emergency business loans cost roughly £375billion, or £5,565 per person. Labour repeatedly pushed the Tories to spend even more, and go harder on lockdowns.

The Conservatives didn’t create the virus, just as Reeves didn’t start the war. They still had to deal with the consequences.

Reeves has never suggested that Covid excuses Tory failures. In return, she can’t claim that war in the Middle East somehow absolves her. It doesn’t. All it’s done is expose them.