Labour MPs will feel compelled to act if their party continues to poll below 20% and is pushed into third – or even fourth – place behind Reform UK
Sir Keir Starmer needs to convince his MPs he is the best person to stop Nigel Farage becoming PM (Image: Dan Kitwood / Lucy North)
Time is running out for Sir Keir Starmer. Even the loyalist Labour MPs cannot stand by if their party stays below 20% in the polls and is overtaken by the Conservatives – and potentially the Greens as well. The Prime Minister is in a battle for survival. His friends, who last week briefed him that he would stand in a leadership contest, effectively fired a starting gun on this process.
Sir Keir now has to convince anxious Labour MPs he is the best person to fix the country’s glaring problems and keep their party in power. Whether he likes it or not, he is auditioning to stay in Number 10. Yes, it is extraordinary that the leader of a party which last year won 405 of the country’s 650 constituencies is in this position, but MPs fear for the future of Britain if Labour is ousted.
In normal times, Labour activists would groan if the Tories won an election, hunker down and wait for their turn to return to power. Losing to Reform UK is a far more frightening prospect.
The longer Nigel Farage’s party sustains a double-digit lead in the polls, the more credible it looks as a party of Government. The announcement that Alan Mendoza, the director of the Henry Jackson Society, an influential security think tank, is now Reform’s chief adviser on global affairs, is the latest sign that people who want to shape the future of Britain see Mr Farage as a true contender to succeed Sir Keir.
Labour MPs on the Left of the party are reportedly in early preparations for a leadership contest. Sir Keir will hate the idea that MPs are plotting instead of preparing to sell the merits of next week’s Budget to their constituents.
On Tuesday, he tried to stamp out disquiet in the ranks. According to Downing Street, he told the Cabinet that “distractions meant our focus shifted from where it mattered most – working every day in the service of the British people.” He said they needed to deliver change rather than “talk about ourselves”.
Sir Keir Starmer romped to victory in the 2020 leadership contest but now faces a greater challenge (Image: Getty)
The trouble is, when a party leader calls for unity, you know he or she is in the danger zone. Labour will come under ferocious attack when Rachel Reeves unveils her tax-raising Budget, and MPs will head home for the Christmas recess, fearing their party will be annihilated in May’s Scottish, Welsh and local elections.
Sir Keir and his closest allies devised a brilliant plan to win the 2020 Labour leadership contest and the 2024 General Election. However, he now needs a revival strategy to rescue both his premiership and his party. Otherwise, his most ambitious rivals will devise their very own plan for change.
