The Prime Minister has been warned that more people could cross the English Channel this year.
Keir Starmer is under pressure to stop small boat crossings (Image: Getty)
Keir Starmer faces a new year nightmare as small boat migrant crossings are set to increase in 2026, an expert has said. Research director at the Centre for Migration Control, Rob Bates, said that the Government’s “gimmicks” have failed to cut the number of people crossing the English Channel, including the so-called one in, one out deal with France, which has been a “complete failure”.
A total of 41,472 migrants arrived in the UK in 2025 after crossing the English Channel – the second-highest annual figure on record. The Home Office confirmed on Thursday that no migrants made the journey on New Year’s Eve, continuing a run of no crossings over the festive period. It means the overall number of arrivals last year finished 9% below the all-time high of 45,774 in 2022.
More than 41,000 migrants arrived in the UK in 2025 after crossing the English Channel (Image: Getty)
Mr Bates told GB News that arrivals are “likely to go up” this year.
He emphasised that the ECHR is preventing individuals from being returned to their home countries.
“The Labour Party isn’t going anywhere near having the conversation about leaving the ECHR,” Mr Bates said.
“They think they’re going to be able to work with nearly 50 other countries to renegotiate this international agreement that is pie in the sky thinking if they think they’re going to get that done.”
The Centre for Migration Control posted on X: “The Labour Government has poured petrol on the small boats crisis.
“Channel crossings are up, removals are down, and use of hotels increasing. Failure.”
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said the Prime Minister’s plan to “smash the gangs” had been “a complete disaster” and the “one in, one out” deal with France is a “farce”.
“The numbers coming over are huge,” he said.
“Many of the young men that have arrived last year will do us great harm.”
The UK’s Border Security Commander, Martin Hewitt, tasked with curbing Channel crossings, told MPs in October that the number of arrivals in 2025 is “frustrating” but that work to stop the smuggling route was “always going to take time”.
The Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act became law in December, which introduces new criminal offences and allows law enforcement agencies to use counter terror-style powers to crack down on people-smuggling gangs.
In November, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood also announced plans for a raft of reforms in what she described as “the most significant changes to our asylum system in modern times” in a bid to deter people from coming to the UK and make it easier to deport them.
Under changes inspired by the Danish system, refugee status will become temporary with regular reviews every 30 months, and refugees will be forced to wait 20 years for permanent settlement in the UK, up from five years currently.
