Support for Reform UK is surging in Wales and while voters are deserting Labour
Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
Nigel Farage’s party is now the second most popular across the border following a 5% boost.
Plaid Cymru is leading the latest Senedd voting intention poll for the first time since 2010. But Reform UK is now tying with Welsh Labour amid rocketing support.
The latest Barn Cymru poll carried out by YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre predicts Plaid Cymru would be ahead by a point, with 24% of the vote.
Labour, following a 4% fall, and Reform UK are both on 23%, while the Welsh Conservatives are behind on 19%.
Reform UK surge in Wales (Image: Daily Express)
Dr Jac Larner, from the Wales Governance Centre, described the poll – the first since the UK General Election and Eluned Morgan’s election as First Minister – as unprecedented.
“We essentially have a three-way tie in current vote intention between Plaid Cymru, Labour and Reform UK.
“The Conservatives sit in fourth place. This is unprecedented for a Senedd poll in Wales.
“This is the first YouGov poll since 2010 which has showed Plaid Cymru ahead in Senedd vote intention, albeit within the margin of error.
“Prior to the General Election in July, we observed a growing trend of switching between Labour and Plaid Cymru support in polls, something which continues here: 24% of Labour voters say they will vote for Plaid Cymru in a devolved election.
“This switching has always occurred, but this poll adds to the evidence that it is becoming the political preference of a growing number of voters.”
Mr Farage has said that the Senedd 2026 election will be his party’s biggest priority that year.
Speaking at the party’s Welsh conference in Newport earlier this month, he said: “This campaign, the one leading up to 2026 will be in that calendar year, for me as national party leader, by far our biggest priority.”
He is expected to take charge of Reform’s Welsh efforts in 18 months, and said there was a “distinct possibility” that Reform would go into those elections with a Welsh leader.
Mr Farage also ruled out a deal with the Welsh Conservatives ahead of the 2026 election, saying “they can do what they want”.
“We are going to be in those elections. The main challenge to Labour, that’s the ambition,” he added.
He added that he would be surprised if his party did not have a Welsh leader by 2026.
“This conference is the first time that, effectively, we’ve got Reform members all over Wales together in a room.
“It’s open to members only. We’re forming branches. We’re going to get activists. We’re applying for candidates. Give me time.”
He added: “I think it’s a distinct possibility that we will go into those set of elections with a Welsh leader. I’d be surprised if we don’t.”
Mr Farage has called on his party members to put themselves forward as candidates for the 2026 election, as part of what he called a “people’s army”.
“I need all of you in whatever way you can to get involved with this people’s army, to join us, to join the local branches, to put yourself forward for treasurer or whatever it may be,” he said.
Reform is yet to publish a list of policies specific to Wales for the election.
Party insiders are targeting a return of at least 16 Members of the Senedd (MSs) in 2026, with Mr Farage having previously said that Reform would win “a lot of seats”.
Reform did not win any in Wales in this year’s General Election, but came second in 13 of the 32 seats and secured 16.9% of the vote.
The Senedd’s new system of 16 constituencies, each returning six MSs, is expected to be more favourable to Reform than the first-past-the-post system used for Westminster elections.
If Reform does win seats in 2026, it would mark another anti-establishment breakthrough for Mr Farage in Cardiff Bay.
He was the leader of UKIP when that party won seven seats in 2016, before in-fighting saw the group fall apart over the course of the Senedd term.
Mr Farage later led the Brexit Party, which also had a group in the Senedd.
The Brexit Party became Reform UK.
The party also has councillors in Wales for the first time, with three independent members of Torfaen council switching to Reform soon after the General Election.
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