Bookmakers have revealed the latest odds for a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby after Labour MP Mike Amesbury was convicted of assault after punching a constituent. Star Sports has tipped Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to win the seat with a historic victory over Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
Amesbury, elected to the seat last year, was suspended by Labour and currently sits as an independent. Although a by-election is not automatic, one will be held if 10% of voters in his seat sign a recall petition demanding one. Amesbury has ignored demands for him to step down over the conviction.
Star Sports gave Reform odds of 4/7, with Labour second on 6/4.
The Conservatives are 16/1, while George Galloway’s Workers’ Party of Britain is on 33/1.
Amesbury pleaded guilty to assaulting 45-year-old Paul Fellows in Frodsham, Cheshire, on October 26.
A court was told the MP had been drinking before he arrived at a taxi rank around 3am, where Mr Fellows approached him to remonstrate about a bridge closure in the town.
Footage showed the politician punching Mr Fellows in the head and knocking him to the ground before following him into the road and punching him at least five more times.
He was then heard saying: “You won’t threaten your MP again, will you?”
Members of the public restrained Amesbury and one was heard to say: “You’ll never be MP after tonight, mate.”
A court was told Mr Fellows sustained an injury to his head and reported a headache, as well as a superficial graze to his elbow.
Amesbury was originally given a 10-week prison sentence but this was suspended on appeal.
He has refused to answer questions about whether he would resign but said last week: “I’d like to reiterate that I sincerely apologise once again to Mr Fellows and his family.”
A Labour Party spokesman said: “Local residents in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency deserved better and we look forward to them getting the representation they deserve in the future with a new Labour MP.”
Reform has already started campaiging in the seat.
