The defection of shadow cabinet ministers – not just ex-MPs – to Reform UK would plunge the Badenoch project into crisis
Nigel Farage enjoyed remarkable success in 2025 but Kemi Badenoch is fighting for a Tory comeback (Image: SmartFrame/Zuma Press)
The nuns at Nonnberg Abbey in the Sound of Music asked one another: “How do you solve a problem like Maria?” For Nigel Farage, the problem is Kemi Badenoch. She shares his ambition to be prime minister and has launched a political tank battle.
She has cast herself as an anti-woke warrior who is determined to take Britain out of the ECHR and end Whitehall’s obsession with net zero while reviving high streets and home building by taking the axe to tax. Her tanks are firmly on Reform UK’s lawn.
The latest YouGov poll puts Reform on 24% – its lowest level since April last year – with the Conservatives in second place on 20%. Mrs Badenoch will fight to close that gap and move into first place by the time of the 2029 election. Even more audaciously, the Conservatives may position her as the “stop Farage” candidate in a host of battleground seats which could decide who enters Downing Street. The pollster found when Britons are offered a straight choice as PM between Mrs Badenoch and Mr Farage, the Conservative leader won by 31% to 21%.
The contest is all about credibility. The Tories need to win back the trust of voters on a host of issues including – crucially – the economy. Mrs Badenoch wants to convince you her party has changed so memories of partygate, Liz Truss’s mini-Budget and the hike in interest rates and the leap in net migration do not wreck a Tory revival.
Kemi Badenoch needs to show she can stop voters – and MPs – going to Reform (Image: Getty)
Mr Farage, meanwhile, must assure you a Reform Government will hit the ground running and not collapse into growth-killing chaos. This is why the right defections are so important – he needs men and women on his team who have sat at the cabinet table who can command the confidence of the markets and will not be bamboozled by civil servants.
He has quickly won over an array of experienced and fiercely ambitious former Conservatives who would not go near an outfit they thought would self-immolate within minutes of taking office. To name just three, Nadhim Zahawi was an utterly passionate Education Secretary and Sir Jake Berry was one of the foremost champions of ending the North-South divide as minister for the Northern Powerhouse; Danny Kruger knows the inside of Downing Street and is a serious-minded thinker about some of the nation’s most vexing social challenges.
The danger for Mr Farage is that welcoming in further tranches of ex-Conservatives risks making Reform look like the Tory party which was emphatically rejected by voters in 2024. Mr Farage’s foes will portray his party as a repository of Tories who have lost their seats and been refused peerages.
Reform UK has attacked the legacy of Boris Johnson (Image: Getty)
Reform has sought to paint the Boris Johnson years as a time of chaos, with Zia Yusuf describing the PM who promised to “get Brexit done” as “one of the most religiously obsessed net zero fanatics” who “threw open our borders”. This strategy of demonising the veteran Brexiteer will get harder if Reform is stacked with ex-ministers who served under him.
But Mr Farage will do real harm to the Badenoch project if he convinces members of her shadow cabinet to cross over. If figures with credibility on the Right declare that Mr Farage will be a better prime minister than her and cross over, this would be a vote of no confidence which would leave her party reeling.
The May elections to English councils and the Scottish and Welsh parliaments are widely expected to be a drubbing for the Tories. If some of the most talented figures on the Conservative benches chose this moment to put their faith in Mr Farage, this would be a crisis for Mrs Badenoch and potentially threaten her leadership.
She also needs to worry about the defections which do not show up on the national radar. To win in 2029, she needs the best and brightest candidates and staffers and the most generous donors.
But if people who are ambitious for Britain throw in their lot with Mr Farage’s happy warriors then the future for the Conservatives is bleak. The battle between Mr Farage and Mrs Badenoch will be intense. This contest could not just determine the future of their parties but that of Britain.
