Reform UK could be on for a stonking majority if new poll data comes to pass.
Kemi Badenoch, Conservative leader. (Image: Getty)
The Conservatives may send just 10 MPs to the House of Commons, with Reform romping to a 162-seat majority, according to a new poll. Find Out Now’s bombshell polling data warns the UK’s oldest political party may soon become the country’s fifth-largest party in terms of seats, behind Reform, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.
According to the poll, the Tories would win just 16% of the vote, placing them third—a poor enough result for the country’s most successful political party—but the pollsters’ electoral map makes for even grimmer reading. When the data is run through Electoral Calculus’ prediction map, the country is lit up turquoise, while Labour’s traditional red and the Tories’ royal blue are reduced to specks.
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Nigel Farage to issue huge challenge to Keir Starmer in major speech
Nigel Farage during the Runcorn by-election. (Image: Getty)
Reform, which is polling at 32% according to the data, would sweep to victory, winning an astounding 406 seats. If it came to pass, the win would see Nigel Farage’s party claim the sixth-largest majority in British electoral history.
Labour, meanwhile, would be predicted to lose 305 seats and win just 21% of the vote, meaning they’d only have 107 MPs in the Commons.
The Lib Dems would finish with 14% of the vote—higher than they claimed at the last election—but they are predicted to lose 17 seats and return 56 MPs.
It is important to note that Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus did not work together on the poll or the predictive map.
The electoral map turns turquoise when you input the data into Electoral Calculus’ predictor (Image: Electoral Calculus)
Nevertheless, it indicates that Reform under Mr Farage is the main threat to Sir Keir Starmer and Labour.
Days ago, Sir Keir admitted he was preparing to contest a General Election against Reform.
He told his own MPs they now held a “moral responsibility to make sure Nigel Farage never wins”.
“The Conservatives are not our principal opponent,” he said. “Reform is our main rival for power.”
Mr Farage himself made a similar point during a press conference in Westminster yesterday.
“As for the Conservatives, I don’t think many in the media class yet really understand the extent to which they are dying as a political party,” he warned.
“It’s over, it is done, and frankly, after the level of betrayal that we saw, especially since the 2019 team victory with the 80-seat majority, they fully deserve everything that is happening to them.
“As I mentioned already, they cease to be a national party. They are now an irrelevance in Scotland, an irrelevance in Wales, a complete irrelevance in the Red Wall where nobody will ever trust them again.”
