Nigel Farage needs to win one crucial area to become Prime Minister – it’s not immigration
The party has carved out a clear position on immigration but if the Tories beat it on just one vital topic then Reform’s dreams of election victory could dashed
Nigel Farage needs to seal the deal on a matter of intense concern to voters (Image: Getty)
Robert Jenrick has been richly rewarded for making his new political home with Reform UK. The former Conservative immigration minister has been given the challenge of taking on Rachel Reeves as “Shadow Chancellor”. A priority is reassuring investors who could be spooked at the arrival of a party in Government which has never held power before, and persuading you that Reform can restore prosperity.
Reform is braced for challenges in its first months in office. It plans to arrive with a raft of legislation to turn into law and is braced for battles with the Lords and obstructive civil servants; the last thing it needs is a bout of market panic. This is why Mr Jenrick will use his first major speech in the new post to stamp on any suggestion he could scrap the Office for Budget Responsibility or end the independence of the Bank of England. Mr Farage shows no desire to tone down Reform’s opposition to net zero or its determination to remove people in the UK who have no right to live here, but he knows his party must win the trust of the electorate on the economy.
With unemployment at the highest level in nearly five years and growth flatlining, Labour’s record on the economy looks miserable. The question is whether people will give Reform or the Conservatives a mandate to get Britain out of the present quagmire.
Kemi Badenoch and Conservative Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride are campaigning hard on business rates and stamp duty. Reform cannot can let the Tories win back trust on the economy.
Mr Farage’s first frontbench appointments tell us much about how he plans to fight the next general election. If he wanted to round off the party’s sharp edges he would not have appointed Zia Yusuf his Shadow Home Secretary or Suella Braverman as Shadow Education and Skills Secretary.
With these figures in post, any watering down of Reform’s tough stance on immigration looks highly unlikely, and Mrs Braverman will relish a new round of culture war battles as she looks forward to taking the axe to the Equality Act.
Will this team be running the country before the end of the decade? (Image: PA)
Likewise, if Richard Tice becomes Business, Trade and Energy Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister, there is no chance of him becoming a sudden convert to net zero.
In a crowded electoral marketplace, Mr Farage has no intention of diluting what makes Reform distinctive – but he is equally determined the party looks a credible custodian of the public finances.
As Bill Clinton’s legendary strategist James Carville famously said, when it comes to winning elections: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
