Off the back of YouGov’s recent blockbuster opinion poll for Reform UK – putting Nigel Farage‘s party seven points ahead of Labour and 12 clear of the Conservatives – the latest poll by Find Out Now puts Reform 13 points ahead of Sir Keir Starmer‘s party. Admittedly Find Out Now polls tend to give above-average leads to Reform (the last but one gave 8%), but a 13-point lead, with the insurgent Reform on 33%, puts Farage’s party in absolute majority in Parliament territory.

These polls could be just a post-election afterglow – since Reform did so well in local elections on May 1 – but it feels more like a new trend, with Find Out Now’s percentage roughly the same as Reform’s vote average in the council elections. It must be panic stations in Labour and Tory HQs. Labour at least is in government and can enact policies to woo voters back, from a tougher immigration stance to hardening its position on crime.

A trade deal struck with the US meanwhile gives Sir Keir some positive news although Farage can also take some credit since, without Brexit, such a deal would have been impossible.

That said, Sir Keir has not secured a comprehensive trade deal but more a carve-out from Donald Trump‘s tariffs. Moreover, Washington likely sees this as a stepping stone to an even bigger deal with China. Still, Farage needs to be mindful that Labour has the levers of government at its disposal (not that this helped the Tories

 much), while Reform will itself become a party of local government after May 1, bringing with it greater responsibility as well as scrutiny.

For the Conservatives, a long bleak road is opening up. Even if new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch faces a near impossible task in turning around her party’s fortunes, patience is in short supply and rumours continue of a comeback for Boris Johnson.

Reform UK meanwhile goes from strength to strength, with latest polls making for fantastic reading. But before Farage starts measuring up the curtains for Number 10, he faces four years where much could change and Reform’s record in local authority will come under the most intense scrutiny.