A pollster has set out a scenario which could see Nigel Farage enter 10 Downing Street.

Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus used a graph to show how many seats the polling company predicts Reform UK would win with different vote shares at a hypothetical general election.

He said that if the rebranded Brexit Party secures 28% of the vote share it could become the largest party in the House of Commons.

Under such a scenario, the Brexit architect could become prime minister in coalition with the Tories as junior partners.

Reform would likely have an overall majority if it reaches 31%.

Mr Baxter told GB News: “The graph here is showing the number of seats that Reform will win, under our predictions, against the vote share they get.

“But the interesting thing is that at the moment they’re on 15% support and just five seats.

“If they can get up to 25% support in the polls, they get about 100 seats.

“The really interesting thing for the year ahead is if they do a bit better than 25%, if they can push through that, they might or they might not, but if they get up to 28%, it’s only slightly more than that, they’re actually the largest party in the House of Commons.

“And Nigel Farage might be the Prime Minister with Conservative support.”

Mr Baxter said Labour, which has seen support nosedive since July’s election, and the Tories are both currently on an average of 26% in their polling, while Mr Farage’s insurgent party is on 22%.

It comes after Reform overtook Sir Keir Starmer‘s party in a national poll for the first time earlier this month.

The party has been building momentum with a series of key defections from the Conservatives and passing the milestone of 100,000 members.

The next general election is not due to take place until 2029.