A startling prediction from a government advisor hints at a dramatic shift in the UK’s migration landscape, with numbers set to soar
Migration expert warns of 100,000 surge in net migration, driven by asylum seekers (Image: Getty)
A government advisor has sounded the alarm, predicting a significant increase in net migration of around 100,000, largely fueled by a growing proportion of asylum seekers entering the country.
According to the Telegraph, Prof Brian Bell, chairman of the migration advisory committee (MAC), has forecast that the overall migration figure will jump “in the medium term” from the current level of 204,000 to approximately 300,000, following nearly three years of sharp declines.
This projection could pose a serious challenge to Sir Keir Starmer‘s manifesto commitment to reduce net migration, as Labour gears up for a general election campaign where immigration is expected to take center stage.
Projections align with Office for Budget Responsibility’s estimates
Prof Bell’s forecast echoes similar projections made by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which suggested that net migration could rise to as high as 340,000 by 2030, before the end of the decade.
‘Boriswave’ drives record-high net migration, but work visas unlikely to surge again
The year leading up to March 2023 saw net migration – the number of people entering the UK minus those leaving – hit an all-time high of 944,000, propelled by the so-called “Boriswave” of foreign workers and students allowed into the country under Boris Johnson‘s liberalized immigration policies. However, Prof Bell expressed doubt that work visas would “take off again,” citing tighter controls and restrictions on non-graduate skilled workers and foreign students.
Instead, Prof Bell pointed to the immigration system’s shift towards a higher proportion of asylum seekers and family visas, whose numbers are “quite difficult to change.” Currently accounting for 44 percent of net migration, he predicted that this figure could reach 50 percent in the near future.
Prof Bell cautioned that this shift would have a negative fiscal impact, as refugees “unambiguously” cost the state money due to lower earnings and a reduced likelihood of being employed. He cited research from the Netherlands and Australia, which estimated the “lifetime net fiscal impact” of each asylum seeker at minus £390,000 and minus £198,000, respectively.
MAC report highlights low employment rates and wages among asylum seekers
A report published by the MAC on Wednesday underscored the financial burden of asylum seekers and refugees, stating, “We expect the lifetime net fiscal impact of those entering through asylum and refugee routes to be unambiguously negative.”
The report attributed this to “low employment rates and wages, high rates of economic inactivity and their exemption from the ‘no recourse to public funds’ rule.”
“For example, analysis by Migration Observatory suggested that 56 per cent of those who reported initially arriving in the UK to claim asylum and were of working age were in employment, compared to 75 per cent of the UK-born population,” the report highlighted.
“When in employment, their median annual salary was £20,000 for men and £18,000 for women, compared to £31,000 and £22,000 respectively for the UK-born.”
