Keir Starmer faces “very, very large” losses in next year’s local elections and these results could be “decisive” for his future as Prime Minister, a leading pollster has predicted.

Lord Hayward warned of a drubbing in Labour’s heartlands in England, defeat in the Welsh Senedd and a “battering in the Scottish Parliament”.

But Sir Keir’s future could be thrown into fresh doubt as the party is on course for “very, very large” losses to Reform UK, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats, and, in east London, pro-Gaza Independent candidates.

Council elections are due to take place on May 7 in all 32 London boroughs, as well as in Birmingham, Greater Manchester, Tyneside, and across the Home Counties. Devolved elections are also taking place in Scotland and Wales.

Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer, said: “A few months ago, it looked as if May 7 would be decisive for the leaderships of both Labour and Conservatives. As we move into 2026, it now looks as if the May elections could decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but it is less clear that that will be the case for Kemi Badenoch.”

He claimed there will be a “cacophony of winners”, adding the Conservatives are also likely to lose seats overall. They could pick up seats in London.

Lord Hayward said Reform – starting from a low base – was likely to make the most gains.

Lord Hayward suggested Labour was on course for “one hell of a battering” in Scotland, while the SNP, Reform and the Greens could do well.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru and Reform are also expected to perform strongly.