Reform UK is set to overtake Labour at next year’s Scottish Parliament elections, new polling suggests. The survey found that Nigel Farage‘s party would return 22 MSPs next May, making it the second largest in Holyrood.

The SNP would remain Scotland’s biggest party but John Swinney would not have a majority, while Labour would be third. The poll by Survation, commissioned by IPPR Scotland think tank, shows the SNP with 34% of the constituency vote, followed by Reform on 22% and Labour on 18%.

The Tories take 10%, the Liberal Democrats 8%, the Green 7% and Alba 1%.

The SNP is on 29% in the regional list vote, with Reform on 20% and Labour on 17%.

The Tories take 12%, the Lib Dems and the Greens are both on 10% and Alba with 2%.

The SNP would be down to 55 seats at Holyrood, according to modelling by Mark Diffley.

Reform would have 22 MSPs, Labour would drop to 19, the Tories would take 12, the Lib Dems 11 and the Greens 10.

Mr Diffley told The Herald: “This is the first poll in Scotland to show Reform UK in second place on both the constituency and regional list votes.

“It consolidates the trend we have seen over the past year, with the party averaging around 20% support and now edging ahead at 22%.

“They seem to be pushing Labour further back into third place, which is a clear problem for Labour.”

The poll comes after the Caerphilly Welsh Parliament by-election last week which saw Reform come second to Plaid Cymru, while Labour’s vote collapsed.

Survation polled 2,043 adults between September 22 and October 14.