Pollster says Reform is “continuing to disrupt Scottish politics” ahead of the May elections
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
Reform UK is neck-and-neck with Labour for second place in the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections, according to new polling. The survey suggests the insurgent party is on course for 18 seats in Holyrood, the same number as Scottish Labour.
The SNP is in the lead but would fall short of a majority with 61 MSPs, according to the poll by Survation for True North Advisors. The Scottish Tories would take 12 seats, the Scottish Liberal Democrats 11 and the Scottish Green Party nine.
True North Advisors managing partner Fergus Mutch said: “With four months to go until the Holyrood election, the first Scotland-wide political poll of 2026 shows that Reform UK is continuing to disrupt Scottish politics.
“Scottish Labour face a major challenge from this continued surge in support for Nigel Farage’s party, with Anas Sarwar now facing a battle to be the main opposition, and with his fortunes intrinsically tied to how the public rate the performance of his party at Westminster.
“While the SNP will be pleased with its continued poll lead, there is no sign that it is building much in the way of momentum heading into crucial campaigning period ahead.”
Some 19% of voters said they would opt for Reform in the constituency vote, compared to 16% for Scottish Labour. The two parties are both on 18% for the regional list vote.
Around a third of voters – 34% – back the SNP in constituencies and 28% on the regional list. And the Scottish Tories secure 13% of votes on both the constituency and regional list vote.
Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said: “Labour at 16% would be the lowest level we have recorded in Survation’s Holyrood constituency polling this parliament – down around six points on a year ago and roughly half the 33–34% we were measuring in mid/late 2023.
“Meanwhile, the SNP are steady on 34%. Beyond Labour, opposition to the SNP remains fragmented. Reform’s momentum may be stalling at 19%, while the Conservatives show a modest pick-up to 13%.
“The Liberal Democrats are on 9% and the Greens 8%, with Alba on 1%. The net effect is the SNP maintaining a clear lead, now 15 points on the constituency vote.”
It comes as Reform leader Nigel Farage is in Edinburgh today to unveil the party’s Scottish leader. Survation polled 1,002 people between January 8 and January 12.
