The survey suggests Nigel Farage is on course to be Prime Minister.
Mr Farage is on course to be Prime Minister (Image: Getty / Sky News)
YouGov has published its first ‘MRP’ megapoll since June, confirming that Nigel Farage is on course to be Britain’s next Prime Minister. MRP polls are much more accurate than other polls, with a sample size of 13,000 compared to the usual 2,000.
It allows the pollster to dig into the details and make accurate seat-by-seat forecasts. This morning YouGov forecast that Nigel Farage is on course to be Prime Minister, though may still fall short of an overall majority. The reputable pollster reports that Reform would win 311 seats were the election called tomorrow, just 14 shy of an overall majority.
A number of cabinet ministers would lose their seats (Image: Getty)
This is a big improvement since its last MRP poll three months ago, when Mr Farage was set to fall 55 seats short of a majority.
By contrast Labour has fallen back further, and would now win just 144 seats, 34 seats fewer than YouGov forecast in its last MRP.
The Tories, despite further slides in the polls, would win 45, almost exactly the same as forecast in the summer.
The LibDems have also remained nearly static, dropping from an expected 81 seats to 78.
The SNP, Greens and Plaid would win 37, 7, and 6 seats respectively.
While the poll is less optimistic than other recent surveys, it would still see Nigel Farage entering No. 10.
Responding to the bombshell news, Mr Farage warned: “This new poll will spread panic amongst Labour and Tory MPs as they head to their party conferences.”
Reform would easily be able to form a coalition with the Conservatives, giving the right a Commons majority of 60 seats.
Badenoch would lose 60% of her front bench, including Robert Jenrick (Image: Getty)
Were Mr Farage to secure 306 seats, this would be the largest number of seat gains by a British party in one electoral cycle in political history.
With just five MPs at present, Reform would gain a whopping 301 seats in just five years. Crushing Clement Attlee’s existing 1945 record of 239.
Among the big name casualties would be Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Energy Secretary Bridget Phillipson, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, and former deputy PM Angela Rayner.
While the Tories could hope to play a role in the next government, 45 seats would be their worst result in their 190 year history.
Robert Jenrick is also forecast to lose his seat, alongside Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Mel Stride.
According to Sky News, which exclusively published the poll, nearly 60% of Kemi Badenoch’s front bench would lose their seats.
The projected national vote shares from the poll is Reform on 27%, followed by Labour on 21%, the Tories on 17%, the Lib Dems on 15%, the Greens on 11% and the SNP on 3%.
