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Farage will be the UK’s next Prime Minister – but he’s got 1 huge problem to overcome

Reform UK is the new home for unpopular Tories and that presents a massive issue for a party selling itself to Britain as a clean break, says Giles Sheldrick.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage

Nigel Farage is odds-on to become the next prime minister (Image: Getty)

For the tens of millions who exist outside the Westminster bubble, and inhabit a world of daily struggle, the defection of Robert Jenrick from the Conservatives to Reform was met with a collective shrug of the shoulders.

For them it was not exactly the political earthquake it has been portrayed as.

In the space of barely a fortnight three ex-Tories have joined Nigel Farage’s pop-up party and this perhaps presents his greatest problem.

Before Jenrick there was Nadhim Zahawi, and after him, Andrew Rosindell. It is not, despite what some might think, a collection of big beasts.

Since it was founded in 2018 Reform has sold itself as a new broom – a right-wing populist political party different to the Tories.

But that is going to be a hard sell with this trio signing up to a movement that is already home to former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, and Conservative has-beens Dame Andrea Jenkyns, Danny Kruger, Lee Anderson, Jonathan Gullis, Sir Jake Berry, Maria Caulfield, and, er, Lia Nici.

Voters aren’t stupid and will see Mr Farage – himself a paid-up Tory member between 1978 and 1992 – and his party as trying to reinvent the wheel.

Focus groups are picking this up and stating the obvious.

Respected pollster Lord Ashcroft, former deputy chairman of the Conservative Party but hardly a friend of it, says voters have seen recent manoeuvres as a reflection of the defector’s self-serving calculations rather than anything to do with principle or conviction.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and Robert Jenrick (L)

Turncoat Tory: Jenrick lost the Tory leadership race in 2024 (Image: Getty)

Shape-shifting former immigration minister Jenrick had found himself frustrated since being marginalised in the Tory Party.

He was beaten by Kemi Badenoch for the leadership in 2024. Had he won that contest, one suspects this Damascene conversion would not have taken place.

But ever since he has been pumping out video after video – on topics including stolen goods being flogged at Sunday morning car boot sales to pitching up in Calais to talk about the migrant crisis shambles he is in part responsible for.

In Newark, the constituency he has represented since 2014, he holds a majority of 3,572.

In Romford, Rosindell has a 1,463 vote advantage.

Had they stayed as Tories it is likely they would have been defeated… by Reform.

Yet both have stuck two fingers up to those they represent by refusing to stand in by-elections.

For a party we repeatedly hear is founded on the principles of free speech, fair play, and justice, that seems a trifle rum.

Zahawi, who less than 48 hours after being made Chancellor after the resignation of Rishi Sunak stuck the knife into Boris Johnson and publicly called on him to resign, left the Commons before the general election in 2024.

It is true that Mr Farage has benefitted from the appalling chaos unleashed on Britain stretching back to before the EU referendum was held in 2016.

His life’s work in taking Britain out of the EU was ​finally realised in that seismic result but when, and it seems it is a case of when, he makes it to Number 10 he will find that talk is cheap.

The reality is Britain is unlikely to leave the European Convention on Human Rights, the apparent cause of our problems – particularly borders and immigration.

Mr Farage argues exiting the ECHR and its associated Human Rights Act would allow Britain to deport more asylum seekers and illegal immigrants, returning power over these decisions to Parliament.

But, as Brexit has shown, he is likely to face significant political, legal, and public opposition.

And there is his trouble. The two party system might be dead, the deep-rooted issues will remain.

With each passing week Reform is looking less like the home of fresh ideas but more the new des res of failed ex-Conservatives.

To voters these defections look like a bid to save careers on one hand, and fill potential ministerial holes with frontline experience on the other. It is a marriage of convenience rather than love at first sight.

Inside Westminster all this creates palpable excitement.

But is that true in Britain’s forgotten towns, places like Blackpool, Barnsley, or Bognor?

Mr Farage famously turned his back on Europe – and is no fan of the French in particular – but one phrase seems to sum up this never-ending political soap opera: Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose (the more things change, the more they stay the same).

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