You have to go back to Margaret Thatcher’s first year to see such pessimism about the economy just a year after an election
Economic pessimism has taken hold under Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves (Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Britons’ despair about the economy and worry about immigration is laid bare in new figures. Nearly seven out of 10 people (68%) think the economy will get worse in the year ahead. The last time so many people said this after a Government’s first year in office was in April 1980 as Margaret Thatcher battled industrial strife and high inflation.
In contrast, just one in four people thought the economy would get worse a year after the election of John Major or Tony Blair. A mere 12% of people in Sir Keir Starmer’s Britain told pollsters Ipsos they thought the economy would get better. Women are more pessimistic than men with 72% compared to 63% thinking it will worsen.
When asked to name the most important issues facing the country, four out of 10 mentioned immigration – more than for the economy or healthcare (both 30%), defence and foreign affairs (20%), inflation (17%), housing (13%), pensions and benefits (12%), or lack of faith in politicians or poverty or education (all 10%).
The focus on immigration and the economy will hike pressure on Sir Keir’s Government, coming on the heels of figures showing the GDP shrinking and unemployment and inflation going up, with more than 46,000 migrants crossing the Channel on small boats since Labour took power.
Just 16% of Labour supporters said immigration was one of the most important issues facing the country, compared with 47% of Conservative backers and eight out of 10 people backing Reform UK. There was no stark gender divide when it came to concern about immigration, with 42% of men and 38% of women mentioning it.
Older people aged 55-plus are much more likely to mention immigration as a concern (50%) than the 18-34 age group (29%).
Gideon Skinner, senior director of UK Politics at Ipsos, commented on the extent of economic pessimism, saying: “The Ipsos archive shows the only newly-elected government facing a similarly challenging context in consumer confidence on its anniversary was Margaret Thatcher’s in 1980.”
Richard Tice, the deputy leader of Reform UK, said the “British people have every right to be concerned,” saying “taxes keep rising”.
He said: “Millionaires are leaving this country in droves, and choosing nations that actually incentivise business and growth. Our first priority will be slashing wasteful government spending, ditching lunatic net zero policies, and putting British jobs first.”
Margaret Thatcher at the Boat Show in 1979 (Image: SSPL via Getty Images)
But a Treasury spokesperson defended Labour’s record, saying: “Since the election interest rates have been cut four times, real wages have grown more than in the entire first decade of the last government and living standards are now higher. We’ve struck major trade deals with the EU, US, and India, protecting jobs, cutting business costs, and driving growth and are backing that up with record investment.
“Over £113billion more than the last Government, that includes £15.6billion for city transport, £39billion for affordable housing, £14.2billion for Sizewell C, and £22.6billion a year for R&D. This is how we’re delivering on our plan for change to put more money in working people’s pockets.”
