The scene is set for a fierce battle over the future of Labour, which it is suggested could come much earlier than expected, writes David Williamson.
Sir Keir Starmer delivered a landslide in 2024 but will he make it through to the summer? (Image: PA)
A secret of success in politics is always standing ready to grab opportunities when they come – and the chance for Wes Streeting to lead the Labour Party may arrive sooner than expected. The Health Secretary has more than enough to occupy his attention as the NHS confronts the challenges of winter and the latest variants of flu, but he may notice that bookies Ladbrokes have named him the 4/1 favourite to be the next Prime Minister.
There will be no surprise if Sir Keir Starmer faces a leadership challenge if Labour does as badly as feared in the May elections to the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and English councils. But it is now claimed that forces within the parliamentary Labour party are making the case for ousting the unpopular PM much sooner to spare Scottish leader Anas Sarwar and Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan an electoral catastrophe.
A Labour Party source set out the dilemma like this: “There are two schools of thought in the PLP. Most people think May will be a disaster and there will be a change of leader afterwards.
“Some Scottish and Welsh MPs are asking why we should wait to lose their national elections, and are calling for a change now to help Anas and Eluned.”
Former Labour MP Rosie Duffield – no fan of Sir Keir, to put it mildly – told the Express there are rumours he could go “as early as the end of January”. Mr Streeting, 42, could doubtless spring into action and launch a gleaming campaign, but could he win?
Will either Keir Starmer or Wes Streeting be able to revive Labour? (Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
He would almost certainly face a challenger from the Left. Former Deputy PM Angela Rayner is the second favourite to succeed Sir Keir at 5/1, and Labour members have a track record of picking figures who tilt Leftwards; the party famously opted for Ed Miliband in 2010 rather than his telegenic brother, David.
But there are suggestions that Labour – which has now fallen behind the Tories and is tied with the Greens on 16% according to Politico’s poll of polls – may go on the hunt not for an ideologically sound socialist but someone capable of toppling Nigel Farage and Reform UK from the top position.
The party source said: “The threat of Farage is focusing minds – it would be a nightmare if we were the group who let him take charge of Britain.”
The thought of a Reform Government is far more frightening for many Labour members than the return of Conservative rule.
Ladbrokes names Mr Farage as the third most likely person to be the next PM at 11/2. To put this in perspective, the two highest-ranked Tories in the betting to lead the country are Kemi Badenoch at 16/1 and Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick at 28/1.
It remains extraordinary that Sir Keir, a man who led Labour out of a 14-year sojourn in the wilderness to an epic landslide, is strongly tipped to go – with odds of 8/1 for a January to March exit, and 5/2 for removal vans showing up outside Number 10 between April and June. This is an unhappy chapter of uncertainty for the party.
A senior Welsh Labour figure said: “Everyone expects Starmer to go this year. I know no one who expects him to stay on.
“No one wants him to campaign ahead of May, but also, there is no coordinated campaign to remove him. I sense a sad inevitability about the whole thing.”
Labour voters chose Ed rather David Miliband to lead the partyin 2010 (Image: PA)
However, an experienced Labour MP waved away talk of a toppling of Sir Keir, saying the most likely option is he stays on until the “bitter end” and leads the party into a “shellacking”.
The MP pointed to Labour’s inability to replace Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband as leader, even though they argued it was clear neither man was going to win the election.
Sir Keir has a few reasons not to despair. First, no potential contender commands overwhelming support in the party or the country, and no one is offering a radically different policy programme to that he has served up with Rachel Reeves.
Second, the PM is widely respected for his role marshalling international support for Ukraine, and it could look grossly self-indulgent to change leaders whenever NATO is under unprecedented strain, and Britain faces an array of threats.
And third, Labour MPs will remember how the public were turned off the Tories by their regular decapitation sessions. The worst-case scenario for Labour is that removing the leader will not revive the party but rather send it closer to extinction, while making Mr Farage look even more like a prime minister-in-waiting.
In fact, if interest rates are cut and inflation falls and decent growth returns, then Britons might start to feel better about Sir Keir and the country; a spectacular performance by England in the World Cup would certainly help. The PM will recall that Margaret Thatcher famously suffered low poll ratings in 1981 before going on to reshape the country and win landslide victories (her premiership was transformed by her leadership throughout the Falklands crisis, but who would rule out a major security crisis on their watch?).
Things sometimes do get better for embattled leaders. But in case they do not, aspiring Labour prime ministers should have a stump speech ready.
