A seismic shift in UK politics looms as a new poll hints at unexpected electoral outcomes. Could the political landscape be on the brink of transformation?
A major new poll reveals which Labour MPs could lose their seats to Reform UK (Image: Getty)
A major new poll reveals which Labour MPs could lose their seats to Reform UK if the next general election were held today.
Briony Richer, communications director at Electoral Calculus, said tactical voting is starting to grow and could be a “game-changer” in key constituencies, even with Reform currently leading the polls, reports GB News.
According to the survey of over 10,000 voters, splits between Labour, the independents, and other parties could allow Reform to snatch several high-profile seats, putting figures such as Rachel Reeves and Shabana Mahmood at risk. The news emerges as our poll asks: Should Keir Starmer say sorry to Nigel Farage over Reform attacks?
Reform support remains rock solid
Ms Richer added that while left-wing alliances may attempt to block Reform, the party’s core support remains strong, meaning Nigel Farage and his team could still dominate the next election if current trends hold.
Speaking to GB News she explained: “So we have recently done a major poll, surveying over 10,000 people across the UK.
“What that found is that, while Reform are very much leading in the polls and are currently the most popular party, there is strong anti-Reform tactical voting sentiment starting to grow.
“This could affect Nigel Farage, potentially costing him around 60 seats that might otherwise be in his outright majority.
“A lot of Labour and Conservative MPs are now at risk because of tactical voting.
“That story could still change, but tactical voting is certainly going to be a game-changer and could be decisive in the next general election.
“Even with 30 per cent of the vote share right now, around seven out of ten voters want a different party from Reform, so tactical voting is very much in play.”
High-profile Cabinet ministers in danger
GB News host Martin Daubney said: “At present, Yvette Cooper has an 86 per cent chance of Reform taking her seat.
“Wes Streeting, who previously called Nigel Farage a ‘snake oil salesman and a con artist,’ has a 44 per cent chance of his seat going to Reform.
“Next, Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, who called Nigel Farage worse than racist, guess what? Reform could take her seat under the same metrics as before, with the independent and Labour vote splitting.
“Even Rachel Reeves, without tactical voting, has a 60 per cent chance of Reform taking her seat. Looking forward, we could see the mother of all tactical voting campaigns, where the left and the liberals coordinate to vote for anybody but Farage.”
Labour voters would back Tories to stop Reform
She explained: “Interestingly, when it came down to a head-to-head between Conservative and Reform, over a third of Labour voters would swing to the Conservatives, showing where the strong anti-Reform sentiment is coming from.
“On the flip side, Reform voters remain very loyal. In a Lib Dem–Conservative contest, Reform supporters are highly unlikely to support the Conservatives, they stick with their party.
“As you said, if left-wing parties start forming alliances and coalitions, the seats I mentioned could indeed challenge Reform.
“Right now, there are risks to Rachel Reeves and Yvette Cooper if tactical voting comes into play, and you could also see Ed Miliband, Kemi Badenoch, and Robert Jenrick affected.
“There are a lot of variables that could make this very interesting on the ground once campaigns start.
“But as it stands, if a general election were held now, Reform would still be the major party, although they would most likely need to negotiate and share power in key seats.”
