Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is six points away from winning a majority of Commons seats, polling shows (Image: Getty)
Reform UK is only six points away from becoming the biggest party in parliament, bombshell figures from polling experts suggest.
The results of analysis by Electoral Calculus published on Saturday show Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could be bigger than the Conservative Party and Labour in the House of Commons.
Current polling trends suggest Reform would reach 28% of the popular vote at a general election and would likely gain the most seats in the Commons but fall short of a majority, the analysis first reported by the Telegraph shows.
This result would be reached within six months if Reform continues to gain support at its current rate. Reform would need to secure 31% of the vote to win a majority and for Mr Farage to become Prime Minister.
According to Electoral Calculus, Labour would still be the largest party if there were to be another general election, but it would lose its Commons majority as 100 seats go to the Tories and Reform.
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Support for Labour and Sir Keir Starmer is collapsing (Image: Getty)
Support for Labour and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has been collapsing with a slump in the Labour leader’s personal popularity rating.
Current polling puts Reform on 21.9%, up from 14.7% at the election last July while the Tories have ticked up just one percentage point, from 24.4% to 24.5%.
Labour’s 34.7% election winning share of the vote crashes to 26.7%, according to Electoral Calculus’s latest prediction. Seats wise, Labour would still have the greatest number (310) with the Tories on 176 and Reform 36, behind the Lib Dems with 71.
The latest polling comes as Reform supporters gather in Kemi Badenoch’s constituency on Saturday after Mr Farage threatened “the gloves are off”.
He is hosting a Reform UK rally at Chelmsford City Racecourse, his second this year after an event in Leicester, during which he vowed to make Britain great again, in a nod to US President-elect Donald Trump’s MAGA movement.
Nigel Farage says the ‘gloves are off’ over Kemi Badenoch (Image: Getty)
The MPs, who both represent constituencies in Essex, have clashed over Reform’s online membership counter, which Conservative leader Ms Badenoch claimed on Boxing Day was a “fake, coded to tick up automatically”.
Ahead of his racecourse rally in the North West Essex constituency, which Ms Badenoch won with a 2,610 majority over Labour, Mr Farage said: “You had your chance.
“You accused me of being dishonest. You had your chance to apologise. Well now the gloves are off.”
Media outlets including The Spectator and Financial Times reported having been shown the code for calculating and displaying the online ticker, which they found appeared to function properly.
According to a separate, seat-by-seat projection by Stonehaven, published in The i Paper, Reform would win 120 Commons seats at the next election, while Labour would have 278 MPs left, down from 411 at the 2024 election.
Among Reform’s gains from Labour could be Dover and Deal in Kent and South West Norfolk, which Terry Jermy took from former Conservative prime minister Liz Truss last July. North West Essex would remain under Conservative control, according to the model.
