Britain could become a magnet for Iranian refugees fleeing conflict, experts fear – with one deeply concerned that brutal thugs loyal to the theocracy will slip across the English Channel. The joint US-Israel airstrikes sanctioned by Donald Trump have caused shockwaves to reverberate across the Middle East, with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei among those killed last week.

Iran launched new retaliatory attacks early on Friday against neighbouring countries that host American forces after Israeli airstrikes pounded Tehran and Lebanon, with an Iranian drone carrier reportedly hit by the US at sea. Now, European countries, including the UK, are bracing themselves for a fresh wave of asylum seekers. A report published last year suggested it could dwarf those triggered by Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Syrian civil war in 2011.

Alp Mehmet, chairman of Migration Watch UK, acknowledged the potential for a migrant surge.

He said: “Inevitably, we can only speculate. However, when the conflict in Iran is over, the one thing we can be sure of is that there will be displacement within the country, as well as many people, perhaps millions, who will simply want to leave.

“It happened after 1979, following the fall of the Shah, just as it has after conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and umpteen other countries.”

Some of those fleeing would inevitably head for the UK, where there are already thought to be 120,000 Iranians, possibly more, said Mr Mehmet.

Iranians have consistently ranked among the top three nationalities in the latest statistics for small boat crossings over the last year, alongside Afghans and Eritreans.

Mr Mehmet continued: “Others will make for France, where Ayatollah Khomeini planned the Shah’s fall. Germany, with some 340,000 Iranians already there, will attract many of those heading for Europe. Ultimately, the United States is where most fleeing Iranians will want to end up.

“But with 90million Iranians, even if just 5% (some are suggesting 10%) of the population were to emigrate, that would amount to around 4.5million people.

“If only a fraction of them chose the UK, 200-300,000 could end up coming here, or at least trying to.”

Mr Mehmet also highlighted one specific reason to be worried.

He explained: “The horror scenario for me is that the evil and sadistic human rights abusers who are now in charge will take flight, pitch up on our shores and claim asylum.

“I wish I could be confident that we would be diligent enough not only to identify them properly, but also to send them back to Iran to be dealt with there.”

Meanwhile, Guy Dampier, senior researcher on Nationhood at the Prosperity Institute, argued that when it came to perks and benefits, Britain was seen as a soft touch.

He said: “Iranians were already one of the largest nationalities coming to Britain illegally on small boats.

“The war in Iran means those numbers could increase, but the reason many are trying to come here, rather than to nearer countries in the Middle East, is because our asylum laws make it relatively easy to do so, and our generous welfare state attracts them.

“If we want to avoid a new wave of illegals, it is strong borders rather than foreign policy which matters.”

Robert Oulds, director of the Bruges Group, said the UK needed to take a firm stand but doubted that the Prime Minister could be relied upon to take one.

He said: “Britain is full, we have done far more than other European countries and approve more than 70% of asylum applications. On the continent, the figure is around just 30%.

“The UK has been exploited long enough, no more. It’s time that continental European countries and Middle Eastern states took on the burden. We will not tolerate taking in further security risks.

“Starmer cannot be trusted with our security at home or abroad. His weak regime that puts foreigners first needs to be changed. The British people must not let Starmer roll over and open the floodgates to millions more migrants.”

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage took a similarly firm line speaking to GB News earlier this week, saying: “If there are refugees leaving Iran, they will be housed in the Middle East. We can’t take any more refugees from these conflicts. We simply can’t.

“And if we help get a much better regime in place than the theocrats and extremists that have been there for 47 years, what you would actually see is a lot of people living in Britain who came from Iran originally would go back.

“There are Persians here who came from 1979, from the time when the mullahs took over. And I know many of those people that I’ve met would love to go back to their home country, but away from the barbarity of this regime.”

The European Union Agency for Asylum’s (EUAA) latest Asylum Trends 2025 report, written a year before the launch of military action, identified Iran as the primary “wildcard” capable of destabilising the current downward trend in European asylum applications.

While total claims across the EU+ area fell by nearly 20% in 2025, the agency warns that this progress is extremely fragile amid rising regional volatility.

The report specifically calculates that if just 10% of the 90million Iranian population were displaced due to the current conflict and internal collapse, the resulting flow of nine million refugees would surpass the scale of the Ukrainian and Syrian crises, which both peaked at between six to seven million people.

The scenario is particularly critical given that Iran also hosts millions of Afghan refugees who could be forced into secondary displacement towards Europe.

The EUAA uses the 10% figure as a formal “stress-test” to warn member states that while Iranian asylum claims were relatively low in 2025, the infrastructure for a mass influx of this scale was not yet in place – potentially leading to a humanitarian and logistical crisis that would dwarf any movement seen in recent decades.