Take a drive through Gorton and Denton and you quickly start to understand why this by-election is shaping up to be a turning point in Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership. The seat, shaped somewhat like a battleaxe, is fast-becoming a petri-dish for the political fractures in modern British politics, and on Thursday it could deliver Sir Keir a blow from which he may not recover.

On the leftward “blade” of the constituency, the densely populated wards are a mix of Muslim communities and urban-metropolitan types – the kind of voters Labour once took for granted. Drive east towards Denton, and the landscape changes. The area is less densely populated, with a white working-class population that Reform argue have been forgotten by Westminster.

Gorton and Denton feels like a microcosm of the cultural and political divides tearing at Labour’s coalition.

The by-election was triggered after the current MP, elected under the Labour banner and then suspended by the party to sit as an independent, resigned. What should have been a routine Labour hold fast has become anything but.

Andy Burnham, the hugely popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, wanted to stand and Sir Keir blocked him. It seems like that decision alone may cost Labour the seat.

Out and about in the area, and the refrain is constant. Reform voters tell reporters readily that they would have voted for Andy if he had been standing.

Even some Labour supporters seem deflated by his absence. Burnham’s fingerprints are all over Manchester politics – his campaign operation here is formidable, to the envy of other parties. But he is not on the ballot, and that absence looms large.

Instead, this is shaping up as a genuine three-way fight between Labour’s Angeliki Stogia, a local councillor originally from Greece; Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin, the academic and TV presenter; and the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer, a local plumber. The latter two each seek to represent a different vision of what opposition to the status quo looks like.

The intensity of the contest is evident in the media briefings that have intensified as polling day approaches.

Reports have emerged questioning Goodwin’s academic work, supposedly “discredited” years after publication, alongside stories about his personal life and divorce. Spencer has faced accusations that her canvassers are disturbing elderly residents, claims of “sectarian politics” over leaflets in foreign languages, and even criticism for driving a non-electric car.

This is the politics of the gutter – and unfortunately is a sign that all sides believe the seat is genuinely in play.

Each party has a distinct strategy, shaped by the seat’s unique geography and demographics. The Greens are banking on a strong turnout in Muslim areas, and sources tell me Mothin Ali, the Green Party deputy leader, has been in the constituency “every day”, visiting mosques and working to muster what they call the “community vote”.

Official campaign spokespeople prefer to emphasise the youth and diversity of their operation, boasting of hundreds of canvassers. A visit to their campaign office shows a youthful volunteer base, but when we visit, Mothin and a group of his supporters come, collect leaflets, and leave.

Their hope is simple – disaffected Labour voters, combined with Muslim voters fearful of Reform, will propel them to an upset victory.

Reform UK, meanwhile, is running a ruthlessly targeted campaign focused on Denton – the white working-class eastern half of the seat.

Staffed by a mix of Reformers blended in with former Conservative Party workers who know how to win tight contests, they are feeding into a narrative that this area has been left behind by Labour.

Goodwin himself has leaned into fights with other parties, frequently mentioning attacks on him in videos and online. Their calculation, it seems, is straightforward – they need a convincing turnout in Denton, where the population is lower, and they need the Greens to do well enough to split the Labour vote elsewhere.

Labour, for their part, are far from newcomers to this territory. They know Manchester intimately, built on foundations laid by Burnham’s formidable local operation.

“Labour always win here,” you hear constantly on the doorsteps – even from Stogia herself. She is hardly a stranger to the area, having lived there for three decades and currently serving as a councillor nearby.

Their strategy is to come a “convincing second” everywhere in the seat, hoping that breadth of support, if not depth, will see them over the line.

But regardless of Thursday’s result, Sir Keir Starmer‘s troubles are far from over. If Labour lose this seat to anyone, it is highly likely that he will face immediate demands for his resignation from ever louder grumbling backbenchers.

The Lord Mandelson scandal has already left him badly wounded. A by-election defeat in what should be a safe Labour seat would understandably be seen as a direct verdict on his leadership.

Yet it also seems that those seeking to push Sir Keir may hold back and make their formal leadership challenge after May. No potential successor wants to unseat him only to carry the blame for what are expected to be dreadful local election results. Better, the thinking goes, to let Starmer absorb that punishment first.

Gorton and Denton may not be a household name. But by Friday morning, it could be the place where Sir Keir Starmer‘s premiership began its terminal decline.

In a seat shaped like a battleaxe, Labour may be about to feel the blade.