Sir Keir Starmer is now the most unpopular prime minister in history according to the polls. Pretenders like Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting are all jostling to dispatch him into the political wilderness. British prime ministers simply don’t last as long as they did. We’ve had seven in the last decade. Given Starmer’s all‑round ineptitude, he’s the last man to buck the trend.

Things have gone quiet for now, with everyone watching the Gorton and Denton by‑election and then local elections in May. If Labour takes a hammering, which is highly likely, the leadership rumour mill will start up again. Starmer could be out soon after. He’s simply not the right man for a very difficult job.

The only thing holding him in power is that Labour can’t agree who is a better person to run the party and the country. None of them stand out. Rayner has her tax troubles, Wes Streeting may be too right‑wing for the left, Burnham isn’t in Parliament, and Ed Miliband, although popular among activists, isn’t keen to relive his past Labour leadership trauma. Nor are voters. Miliband might still be the power behind the throne though. Heaven help us.

With the pointless Starmer out of the way, Labour has a chance for a political reset. And the party has one stunning factor in its favour. There are early signs the UK economy may finally start to recover this year. Inflation has fallen from double‑digit chaos towards manageable levels, and interest rates could fall from today’s 3.75% to as low as 3%. That should give households and businesses a boost in spending power and confidence.

This would be a wholly undeserved result for Rachel Reeves. We’d be doing a lot better without her blunders. I’ll name just one: her £26billion national insurance increase, the so‑called jobs tax, is now wiping out entry‑level jobs for young people and sending unemployment to the stars. It’ll scar an entire generation. Even so, Reeves will take the credit if inflation falls and lower borrowing costs revives spending, housing activity and sentiment generally.

The old political truism remains: it’s the economy stupid. Despite Labour’s self‑inflicted wounds, there’s a slim chance that if the cost‑of‑living crisis eases further, voters may look more kindly on the party. It’ll be a weird election though, with fringe parties siphoning support from both sides. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has taken the right‑wing space once held by the Conservatives. Zack Polanski’s Greens attract idealistic and unworldly left‑leaning voters, and there are plenty of them.

In a fragmented result, Labour might not win outright, but could creep back into power by combining with the Greens. Much will depend on whether Reform UK and the Tories resolve differences and form some kind of pact.

For all their errors, Labour still has a shot at staying in power. Especially if voters are feeling better off by the time polls open. Yet another five years of Labour madness could follow, with the dial turned up to 10 if they ally with Polanski’s nutty Greens. In that scenario, we might even miss dear old Sir Keir.