The PM really has shot himself in both feet with both barrels over the forthcoming Gorton and Denton by-election. Fifty or so Labour MPs have now called on Sir Keir Starmer and Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) to reverse its decision to ban Andy Burnham from standing for Parliament. Instead, a new candidate has now been selected

The Mayor of Manchester and apparent Labour leadership hopeful threw his hat into the hand only to be denied the chance to stand. The PM and NEC claimed this was about avoiding an expensive mayoral election in Manchester – which would be triggered if Burnham stood – with the threat of a Reform mayoral victory (itself an admission of Labour weakness).

But in blocking Burnham, Sir Keir has surely increased the chances of Reform winning the constituency. It now looks to be a two-horse race between Nigel Farage‘s party and the Greens, with the Left vote splitting. Wouldn’t the PM have been better placed to let Burnham stand and offer him a top job in cabinet? Maybe even Chancellor?

It would be a hell of a lot harder for Burnham to mount a leadership challenge if he owed his promotion to, and served side by side with, Sir Keir Starmer. The PM could have neutralised this threat.

Instead, the Labour benches are angry, while Burnham remains on the outside presumably able to stir the pot and strike when the time is right. Sir Keir’s advantage over a potential challenge from Wes Streeting is that the Health Secretary would be guilty by association. Not so for Burnham.

In cabinet, Burnham would have been restrained and tainted. Outside Parliament he can build a resistance.

With GB News star Matthew Goodwin announced as the Gorton and Denton candidate, if Labour loses the by-election to Reform one wonders how the PM’s colleagues will ever forgive him. Still, the Greens are now the bookies favourite, perhaps benefitting more than Reform from an ‘anti-Starmer’ vote. It’s all to play for up north!