After months of frenzied speculation, Budget day is finally upon us.

Rachel Reeves has tied herself in knots as will discover in her Budget (Image: Getty)
And if you’re worried, think how Rachel Reeves must feel. Her second Budget threatens to be just as punishing as her first, with up to £35billion of new taxes lined up. That’s on top of the £40billion she imposed last year, a fiscal blitz that stalled economic growth, stoked inflation and pushed up unemployment. While she’s scrapped plans to raise income tax, which would have broken a Labour manifesto promise, the pain will be just as intense.
Instead, she’ll serve up a whole “smorgasbord” of smaller levies, which could do even more damage sentiment and the fragile economy. Reports suggest she’ll cut the Cash ISA allowance to £12,000, tighten inheritance tax on family firms, and even impose a “mansion tax” on more expensive homes. These will hit pensioners and savers hard.
Even they won’t raise anywhere near enough, so she may levy yet more taxes, for example, squeezing motorists by hiking fuel duty.
One thing seems unlikely though. The Chancellor may talk about cutting government spending in her speech, but she won’t actually do it
Last year, she tried to cut the winter fuel payment and ballooning sickness benefits bill, but was forced to U-turn on both, after a furious backbench revolt. Any cuts today are out of the question.
And that’s not the only way Reeves has strapped herself in.
She refuses to break her own fiscal rules, which she says are “non-negotiable”. These state that she won’t borrow to cover day-to-day spending, and will aim to shrink the national debt by the end of this Parliament. Her fiscal rules now look like a fiscal straitjacket.
The UK already spends more than £100billion a year servicing its £2.9trillion national debt. If she tries to borrow more, bond markets will panic, driving interest charges even higher.
Reeves is trapped. She can’t cut spending, bend her fiscal rules or borrow more. All that remains is piling on taxes, so that’s what she’ll do. But that’s a trap too.
The tax burden was already at its highest level since the Second World War when Labour won power. Today, she’ll raise it for the second time.
Her first Budget was blamed for killing growth, particularly the move to hike employers’ National Insurance by £25billion. Critics say that “jobs tax” has closed firms, destroyed 180,000 jobs and crushed growth.
Worse, her tax agenda has prompted an exodus. Last year, 257,000 better-off Brits fled the UK, far higher than the 77,000 estimated. Coming back for more today risks accelerating the flight.
With every move, the Chancellor’s straightjacket tightens further. Rachel Reeves must feel like screaming. By the time she sits down, the rest of us will too.
