Has the Chancellor just got lucky?
I was told you make your own luck in life, so it’s hardly surprising Rachel Reeves has had so little of it. While she was unlucky to inherit a ropey economy from the Tories, she’s made a hash of everything since.
Her tax-and-spend spree has choked off growth and driven up inflation, borrowing costs and unemployment. It’ll come to a head in next month’s Budget, when she could whack us for another £30billion of taxes. That’s on top of last year’s £40billion nightmare.
Reeves has been rummaging down the back of the Treasury sofa for ways to raise cash without inflicting even more damage on the economy. And guess what? She’s found something.
A giant stash of Bitcoin, handily at her disposal. I’m serious.
The Treasury has become an accidental crypto investor after seizing billions in Bitcoin from fraudsters and money launderers over the years.
Now here’s the really lucky bit. The price has just rocketed to an all-time high of around $124,000 a coin (£92,250).
Bitcoin has doubled in value in the past year, turning the government’s haul into somewhere between £6billion and £7billion. Now Reeves has to decide what to do with it.
That £7billion is a drop in the ocean next to Britain’s £3trillion national debt.
And while it could plug a gap in this year’s Budget, it’s a once-and-done fix. Reeves can’t pull the same trick next year.
There’s a bigger problem. Nobody knows where Bitcoin’s heading next. Some claim it could hit $1million a coin, which would lift the value of Britain’s haul beyond £50billion.
On the other hand, it could collapse to nothing. I’m still struggling to see the point of it, but what do I know? I’m not some Silicon Valley tech bro.
I wouldn’t trust Rachel Reeves to time an egg, let alone the market. Ironically, Labour has been here before under Tony Blair’s Chancellor Gordon Brown, her political hero.
He tried to time the gold market, and it cost Britain a fortune.
Brown decided to flog off the nation’s gold reserves back in 1999, reckoning the money would be better invested in government bonds.
The price was low at the time, and sank even lower after he signalled his fire sale. He sold 395 tonnes of gold at just $282 an ounce. Total price: $3.5billion.
Today, gold trades at a record $3,935 (£2,900) an ounce. That’s a staggering increase of 1,295%. Brown’s gold would now be worth almost $50billion (£37billion).
In one breathtaking misjudgement, Brown ditched the best-performing asset of the century. We’re now sitting on a £33.5billion loss. Now his disciple faces the same dilemma.
Reeves could cash in the nation’s Bitcoin stash today, but she’ll look a fool if it soars afterwards. If she holds on and it crashes, she’ll have thrown away a whopping £7billion windfall. Either way, she’s gambling with the nation’s wealth (ill-gotten though it may be).
Before she makes her move, Reeves should ask herself one simple question. Do I feel lucky? We all know the answer to that. Whatever she decides, this won’t end well.