Surveys are suggesting that Reform UK’s support has grown, with Labour’s down.
Keir Starmer is facing dire polling numbers. (Image: Getty)
Recent polling has put Reform UK in the lead, producing a general election map that will likely terrify Sir Keir Starmer. The number of seats won by the Prime Minister’s party would be dramatically reduced in a nationwide vote, according to the latest surveys. A Find Out Now poll put Nigel Farage’s party at 34%, with Labour on 16% (minus three percentage points since September 10). Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives polled the same (up one percentage point). Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats, whose conference is taking place in Bournemouth, were at 13% (up one percentage point) in the latest poll, which surveyed 4,795 GB adults between September 17 and 18.
The Greens, now led by London Assembly Member Zak Polanski, polled at 12%. According to Nowcast, Reform would win 352 seats at a general election – 347 more than they did in 2024. Labour would win 107, 304 fewer than in its landslide last year. The Lib Dems would be victorious in 74 constituencies, two more than last time. The Conservatives would suffer an even worse result than in 2024, winning only 31, 90 fewer.
Find Out Now says it has been a “consistent outlier” as regards Reform voting intentions, giving the party a higher share of the vote than other pollsters.
The firm suggests that this is not an error, insisting that there are three things causing researchers to “understate” Mr Farage’s outfit.
These include:
- Too many highly-engaged respondents
- Overstating turnout
- False recall of 2024 general election vote
The pollster added: “Reform voting correlates with low political attention. Given most online panels (but not Find Out Now) over-index on highly-engaged respondents, they understate the Reform vote share. Most pollsters over-estimate turnout.
“Given Reform voters are more likely to vote, this flattens the difference between them and other parties, thus understating their voteshare.”
Find Out Now believes that many Conservative to Reform switchers experience “false recall” and misremember voting Reform in 2024.
Pollsters are purportedly ‘understating’ Reform’s vote share. (Image: Getty)
It added: “Pollsters who reask 2024 GE each survey thus understate the extent of Con to Reform switching, and thus the Reform voteshare
“The combined impact of these three interventions likely explains the majority of the difference between Find Out Now and other pollsters on Reform voteshare.”
This came as Sir Keir appeared to try and bolster his government’s actions. In a comment for the Sun on Sunday, he said: “We’re at a crossroads. There is a dark path ahead of division and decline, toxicity and fear.
“A path that relies on destruction and disappointment, because when the damage is done and the graffiti cleaned away, it’s clear the populists never had anything to offer – no hope, no future, no answers.
“Or, there is the patriotic path of national renewal. Every one of us playing our part to renew, restore, rebuild the country we love.
“That is the path we choose. Because this Government is taking responsibility to reverse the decline.”
